Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Forest Green Rovers win with a probability of 40.23%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 32.81% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Forest Green Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 0-1 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Forest Green Rovers | Draw | MK Dons |
| 40.23% ( | 26.97% ( | 32.81% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.53% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.36% ( | 54.64% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.03% ( | 75.97% ( |
| Forest Green Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.36% ( | 26.64% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.13% ( | 61.88% ( |
| MK Dons Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.88% ( | 31.12% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.55% ( | 67.45% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Forest Green Rovers | Draw | MK Dons |
| 1-0 @ 10.96% ( 2-1 @ 8.47% ( 2-0 @ 7.25% ( 3-1 @ 3.73% ( 3-0 @ 3.2% ( 3-2 @ 2.18% ( 4-1 @ 1.24% ( 4-0 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 2.14% Total : 40.22% | 1-1 @ 12.8% ( 0-0 @ 8.29% ( 2-2 @ 4.94% ( Other @ 0.94% Total : 26.97% | 0-1 @ 9.68% ( 1-2 @ 7.47% ( 0-2 @ 5.65% ( 1-3 @ 2.91% ( 0-3 @ 2.2% ( 2-3 @ 1.92% ( Other @ 2.98% Total : 32.81% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 31 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 58 | 22 | 36 | 68 |
| 2 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 32 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 57 | 32 | 25 | 68 |
| 3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 32 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 60 | 31 | 29 | 60 |
| 4 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 59 |
| 5 | Derby CountyDerby | 31 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 50 | 25 | 25 | 57 |
| 6 | Barnsley | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 45 | 27 | 18 | 56 |
| 7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 31 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 44 | 29 | 15 | 53 |
| 8 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 32 | 14 | 6 | 12 | 39 | 34 | 5 | 48 |
| 9 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 30 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 47 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 37 | 36 | 1 | 42 |
| 11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 40 |
| 12 | Port Vale | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 40 |
| 13 | Exeter CityExeter | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 39 |
| 14 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 30 | 8 | 15 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 39 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 38 |
| 16 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 36 |
| 17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 36 |
| 18 | Burton Albion | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 40 | 58 | -18 | 34 |
| 19 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 33 |
| 20 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 26 | 47 | -21 | 30 |
| 21 | MK Dons | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 29 |
| 22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 31 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 26 | 51 | -25 | 29 |
| 23 | Morecambe | 31 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 28 |
| 24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 63 | -38 | 22 |
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