

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 52.64%. A win for FC Volendam had a probability of 24.54% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.9%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest FC Volendam win was 1-2 (6.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | FC Volendam |
| 52.64% ( | 22.82% ( | 24.54% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.49% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.32% ( | 41.67% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.92% ( | 64.08% ( |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.13% ( | 15.87% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.91% ( | 45.09% ( |
| FC Volendam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.53% ( | 30.47% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.31% ( | 66.69% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | FC Volendam |
| 2-1 @ 9.74% ( 1-0 @ 8.9% ( 2-0 @ 8.19% ( 3-1 @ 5.97% ( 3-0 @ 5.03% ( 3-2 @ 3.55% ( 4-1 @ 2.75% ( 4-0 @ 2.31% ( 4-2 @ 1.63% ( 5-1 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 3.55% Total : 52.64% | 1-1 @ 10.57% ( 2-2 @ 5.79% ( 0-0 @ 4.84% ( 3-3 @ 1.41% ( Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.81% | 1-2 @ 6.29% ( 0-1 @ 5.75% ( 0-2 @ 3.42% ( 1-3 @ 2.49% ( 2-3 @ 2.29% ( 0-3 @ 1.35% ( Other @ 2.96% Total : 24.54% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 62 | 26 | 36 | 73 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 29 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 86 | 33 | 53 | 64 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 29 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 64 | 32 | 32 | 59 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 30 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 57 | 42 | 15 | 59 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 41 | 14 | 48 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 47 | 33 | 14 | 46 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 52 | 46 | 6 | 46 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 37 |
| 9 | Heracles | 29 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
| 10 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 34 |
| 11 | NECNijmegen | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 33 |
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 33 |
| 13 | Groningen | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 32 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 31 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 31 |
| 16 | Willem II | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 30 | 49 | -19 | 24 |
| 17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 29 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 58 | -23 | 19 |
| 18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 21 | 59 | -38 | 19 |
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