

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hartlepool United win with a probability of 43.75%. A win for Eastleigh had a probability of 30.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hartlepool United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.04%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest Eastleigh win was 1-0 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Eastleigh | Draw | Hartlepool United |
| 30.8% ( | 25.45% ( | 43.75% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.61% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.96% ( | 49.03% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.89% ( | 71.11% ( |
| Eastleigh Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.34% ( | 29.66% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.3% ( | 65.7% ( |
| Hartlepool United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.64% ( | 22.36% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.15% ( | 55.85% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Eastleigh | Draw | Hartlepool United |
| 1-0 @ 8.06% ( 2-1 @ 7.34% ( 2-0 @ 4.9% ( 3-1 @ 2.97% ( 3-2 @ 2.23% ( 3-0 @ 1.99% ( 4-1 @ 0.9% ( Other @ 2.42% Total : 30.8% | 1-1 @ 12.07% ( 0-0 @ 6.63% ( 2-2 @ 5.5% ( 3-3 @ 1.11% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.45% | 0-1 @ 9.93% ( 1-2 @ 9.04% ( 0-2 @ 7.44% ( 1-3 @ 4.52% ( 0-3 @ 3.72% ( 2-3 @ 2.74% ( 1-4 @ 1.69% ( 0-4 @ 1.39% ( 2-4 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 2.25% Total : 43.75% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Barnet | 43 | 28 | 9 | 6 | 87 | 37 | 50 | 93 |
| 2 | York City | 43 | 27 | 8 | 8 | 90 | 41 | 49 | 89 |
| 3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 43 | 20 | 16 | 7 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 76 |
| 4 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 43 | 18 | 15 | 10 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 69 |
| 5 | Rochdale | 42 | 19 | 10 | 13 | 63 | 41 | 22 | 67 |
| 6 | Halifax TownHalifax | 43 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 48 | 40 | 8 | 67 |
| 7 | Gateshead | 43 | 19 | 9 | 15 | 73 | 63 | 10 | 66 |
| 8 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 43 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 52 | 48 | 4 | 61 |
| 9 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 43 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 63 | 55 | 8 | 60 |
| 10 | Tamworth | 43 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 60 | 65 | -5 | 60 |
| 11 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 43 | 13 | 17 | 13 | 54 | 54 | 0 | 56 |
| 12 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 43 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 55 | 59 | -4 | 56 |
| 13 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 43 | 15 | 11 | 17 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 56 |
| 14 | Eastleigh | 43 | 13 | 16 | 14 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 55 |
| 15 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 42 | 15 | 9 | 18 | 57 | 61 | -4 | 54 |
| 16 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 43 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 67 | 75 | -8 | 54 |
| 17 | Woking | 43 | 12 | 17 | 14 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 53 |
| 18 | Braintree TownBraintree | 43 | 14 | 10 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 52 |
| 19 | Boston UnitedBoston | 43 | 14 | 10 | 19 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 52 |
| 20 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 43 | 12 | 13 | 18 | 52 | 71 | -19 | 49 |
| 21 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 43 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 54 | 60 | -6 | 47 |
| 22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 43 | 12 | 9 | 22 | 51 | 74 | -23 | 45 |
| 23 | Fylde | 43 | 11 | 6 | 26 | 47 | 78 | -31 | 39 |
| 24 | Ebbsfleet | 43 | 3 | 13 | 27 | 38 | 90 | -52 | 22 |
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