Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a York City win with a probability of 38.3%. A win for Gateshead had a probability of 37.69% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a York City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.18%) and 0-2 (5.53%). The likeliest Gateshead win was 2-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that York City would win this match.