Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 63.39%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 18.86% and a draw had a probability of 17.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.54%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (4.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.