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Preview: Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs. Jack Draper - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Madrid Open final between Casper Ruud and Jack Draper, including predictions, form and their tournament so far.

Both yet to drop a set at the Madrid Open, something has to give when Jack Draper and Casper Ruud cross paths in Sunday's blockbuster Masters final in the Spanish capital.

The British number one sailed past Lorenzo Musetti in the final four to book a date with the Norwegian, who was triumphant over Francisco Cerundolo in his semi-final battle despite an apparent rib injury.


Match preview

Casper Ruud pictured on October 29, 2024© Imago

One of the sleeper agents of the ATP Tour, Ruud mode is activated when the clay-court season comes into effect, and the two-time French Open finalist will now contest his third Masters final at the end of a fabulous fortnight in Madrid.

After navigating his way past Arthur Rinderknech, Sebastian Korda, Taylor Fritz and Daniil Medvedev without dropping a single set, Ruud repeated the trick in a challenging semi-final battle with Cerundolo, defeating the Argentine 6-4 7-5 in just under two hours.

The scoreline did not tell the full story by any stretch, though, as Cerundolo brought up 18 chances to break the Norwegian on the day, but thanks to a combination of Ruud's terrific counter-punching and Cerundolo's own wastefulness, only three of them were converted.

Sticking with the 18 theme, Ruud has now coincidentally reached that exact number of clay-court finals on the ATP Tour - among all active players, only Novak Djokovic (34) has advanced to more - and he is in pursuit of a 13th major singles honour overall.

The Scandinavian's previous top-level singles finals have produced the dictionary definition of a mixed bag of results, though, as he has 12 victories and 12 defeats to show from 24 showpiece matches, and he has come out on the losing side in six of his last eight.

Jack Draper reacts at the Indian Wells Masters on March 12, 2025© Iconsport

While Ruud will surge back into the top 10 of the ATP Tour rankings regardless of Sunday's result, first-time clay-court finalist Draper will start next week as one of the best five players on the planet, joining just a handful of fellow Brits in that exclusive club.

Since the standings were established over 50 years ago, GB have only ever had three men breach the top five - Andy Murray, Tim Henman and Greg Rusedski - but on current form alone, there is an argument to be had that Draper is on top of the world.

The 23-year-old was given a decent run for his money against 10th-ranked Musetti in the semi-finals but advanced to the final courtesy of a 6-3 7-6[4] success, particularly benefitting from the Italian over-shooting several of his one-handed backhand swings.

Making even more history for his nation, Draper is now the youngest British man to reach ATP Tour finals on all three surfaces (clay, grass and hard courts) and enters Sunday's contest having prevailed in three of his last four top-level singles showpiece matches.

A former novice on clay, Draper has been laying down the gauntlet ahead of what promises to be a breakthrough French Open for the British number one, who could now make a serious statement of intent by taking down one of the renowned clay-court aficionados.


Tournament so far

Casper Ruud:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Arthur Rinderknech 6-3 6-4
Third round: vs. Sebastian Korda 6-3 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Taylor Fritz 7-5 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Daniil Medvedev 6-3 7-5
Semi-final: vs. Francisco Cerundolo 6-4 7-5

Jack Draper:

First round: vs. Bye
Second round: vs. Tallon Griekspoor 6-3 6-4
Third round: vs. Matteo Berrettini 7-6[2] ret.
Round of 16: vs. Tommy Paul 6-2 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Matteo Arnaldi 6-0 6-4
Semi-final: vs. Lorenzo Musetti 6-3 7-6[4]


Head To Head

Sunday's Madrid Open final represents a blockbuster first meeting between Draper and Ruud, as the left-handed Briton crosses paths with another right-handed foe, one who prefers the two-handed backhand as opposed to Musetti's riskier one-handed approach.

While Draper may lack a little experience compared to the two-time Roland-Garros runner-up, his win rate of 82.6% for 2025 slightly trumps that of Ruud, although the Norwegian's 76.9% is still nothing to be scoffed at.


SM words green background

We say: Draper to win in three sets

It takes a brave soul to confidently bet against Ruud on the clay, especially as the 26-year-old has taken down Medvedev and Fritz without dropping a set and saved break points for fun in his semi-final, but he is evidently not at full fitness while his rib troubles him.

Furthermore, with an increasingly venomous forehand and delicate drop shot in his arsenal, Draper is a different beast at the minute, and we can envisage the British number one taking home his second Masters title of the year on Sunday, but not without an epic effort.

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Written by
Ben Knapton

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Jack Draper pictured at the US Open in September 2024
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