

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 58.13%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 22.01% and a draw had a probability of 19.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.04%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (5.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Macarthur |
| 58.13% ( | 19.86% ( | 22.01% ( |
| Both teams to score 66.05% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.63% ( | 30.37% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.36% ( | 51.63% ( |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.52% ( | 10.48% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 65.89% ( | 34.11% ( |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.78% ( | 26.22% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.68% ( | 61.32% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Macarthur |
| 2-1 @ 9.36% ( 3-1 @ 7.04% ( 2-0 @ 6.99% ( 1-0 @ 6.2% ( 3-0 @ 5.26% ( 3-2 @ 4.71% ( 4-1 @ 3.97% ( 4-0 @ 2.97% ( 4-2 @ 2.66% ( 5-1 @ 1.79% ( 5-0 @ 1.34% ( 5-2 @ 1.2% ( 4-3 @ 1.19% ( Other @ 3.47% Total : 58.13% | 1-1 @ 8.3% ( 2-2 @ 6.26% ( 0-0 @ 2.75% ( 3-3 @ 2.1% ( Other @ 0.45% Total : 19.86% | 1-2 @ 5.55% ( 0-1 @ 3.68% ( 2-3 @ 2.8% ( 1-3 @ 2.48% ( 0-2 @ 2.46% ( 0-3 @ 1.1% ( 2-4 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 3.02% Total : 22.01% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Auckland FC | 24 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 46 | 23 | 23 | 50 |
| 2 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 36 | 24 | 12 | 44 |
| 3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 42 |
| 4 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 50 | 35 | 15 | 41 |
| 5 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 54 | 39 | 15 | 40 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 52 | 40 | 12 | 37 |
| 7 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 37 |
| 8 | Macarthur | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 33 |
| 9 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 29 |
| 10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 25 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 26 |
| 11 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 24 |
| 12 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 29 | 50 | -21 | 15 |
| 13 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 55 | -35 | 14 |
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