Werder Bremen know that a defeat against visitors St Pauli on Sunday at Weserstadion in the Bundesliga could be devastating for their European ambitions.
The Green-Whites defeated VfL Bochum 1-0 on April 19 and are in eighth place with 45 points, while St Pauli are in 14th place with 30 points and need to collect five points from their final four games to secure top-flight survival.
Match preview
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The hosts had to wait until the 80th minute to break the deadlock against Bochum, though they were deserving winners considering they produced five big chances while preventing their opponents from creating any of their own.
Werder Bremen come into the clash on Sunday having kept three clean sheets in four matches, whereas they had conceded 19 in their prior seven.
Manager Ole Werner's side are two points from sixth-placed Mainz 05 and three from fifth-placed Freiburg, who occupy the Bundesliga's Conference League and Europa League spots respectively.
The Green-Whites have won their last four games by a cumulative score of 8-1, but they did suffer losses in six of their previous seven.
Werner's team have also triumphed in their two most recent home fixtures – keeping two clean sheets – but they were beaten in their prior three at Weserstadion.
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Meanwhile, the visitors held champions Bayer Leverkusen to a 1-1 stalemate on April 20, a game in which they produced more shots (10), shots on target (5) and generated more xG (1.09) than their counterparts.
While St Pauli have only prevented their opponents from scoring in one of their past six outings, they have found the back of the net for six consecutive fixtures, whereas they had failed to do so in their previous four.
Kiezkicker are winless against Werder Bremen in their last four encounters, drawing three and losing 2-0 in the league on December 14.
Head coach Alexander Blessin has overseen a strong end to the season, with the boss only experiencing one defeat in his last six matches in charge, winning twice in that time.
While St Pauli are unbeaten in their past three on the road – drawing two – they did lose their previous two away from home.
Team News
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Centre-back Milos Veljkovic is Werder Bremen's only injury absentee, so expect Niklas Stark, Marco Friedl and Amos Pieper to be stationed in a back three.
Jens Stage, Senne Lynen and Romano Schmid played in midfield last time out, and they are likely to retain their spots in the XI.
Strikers Oliver Burke and Marvin Ducksch have started together in the hosts' past four matches, so there is no reason to doubt their places in the team on Sunday.
Opponents St Pauli will have to cope with injuries to midfielders Jackson Irvine and James Sands, and their absences could lead to the selection of Carlo Boukhalfa and Eric Smith in a double pivot.
Perhaps shot-stopper Nikola Vasilj will be protected by David Nemeth, Hauke Wahl and Siebe Van der Heyden given centre-back Karol Mets and goalkeeper Sascha Burchert have also been ruled out.
Striker Simon Zoller's calf issue is set to keep him from the pitch until early May, and his injury may lead Blessin to start Danel Sinani between attackers Noah Weisshaupt and Morgan Guilavogui.
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Zetterer; Stark, Friedl, Pieper; Weiser, Stage, Lynen, Schmid, Agu; Burke, Ducksch
St Pauli possible starting lineup:
Vasilj; Nemeth, Wahl, Van der Heyden; Saliakas, Boukhalfa, Smith, Treu; Weisshaupt, Sinani, Guilavogui
We say: Werder Bremen 1-0 St Pauli
Werder Bremen's strong showings at the back could help them keep yet another clean sheet in the Bundesliga when they host St Pauli.
The home side are in fine form, but the visitors have not often been defeated in recent matches, so it would not be surprising if Sunday's clash was a close affair.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
