Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 40.67%. A win for Melbourne City had a probability of 37.32% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.12%) and 3-1 (4.99%). The likeliest Melbourne City win was 1-2 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.