Europa League

Europa League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg

Mar 13, 2025 at 5.45pm UK

San Mames Barria

Athletic Bilbao
3 - 1
Roma

(Athletic Bilbao win 4-3 on aggregate)

Williams (45+3', 82'), Berchiche (68')
Williams (71'), Gorosabel (90+1')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Paredes (90+3' pen.)
Svilar (12'), Rensch (60'), Paredes (71'), Soule (90+3')
Hummels (11')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Athletic Bilbao and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Mallorca
Sunday, March 9 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Roma

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Empoli 0-1 Roma
Sunday, March 9 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 48.72%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Roma had a probability of 25.59%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.2%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (8%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Roma
48.72% ( 0.12)	25.69% ( -0.05)	25.59% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 50.31% (

0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.03% (

0.15)

52.97% (

-0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.43% (

0.13)

74.57% (

-0.13)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.24% (

0.11)

21.76% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.06% (

0.17)

54.94% (

-0.17)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.3% (

0.02)

35.7% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.53% (

0.02)

72.47% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Athletic Bilbao 48.72%

Roma 25.59%

Draw 25.68%

Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Roma
1-0 @ 11.84% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.04% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.73% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.44% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.8% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.75% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.29% Total : 48.72%	1-1 @ 12.2% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.77% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.79% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.92% Total : 25.68%	0-1 @ 8% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 6.28% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.12% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.16% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.65% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.42% ( -0) Other @ 1.96% Total : 25.59%