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Europa League

Athletic Bilbao logo
Europa League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Mar 13, 2025 at 5.45pm UK
San Mames Barria
Roma logo

Athletic Bilbao
3 - 1
Roma

Williams (45+3', 82'), Berchiche (68')
Williams (71'), Gorosabel (90+1')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Paredes (90+3' pen.)
Svilar (12'), Rensch (60'), Paredes (71'), Soule (90+3')
Hummels (11')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Athletic Bilbao and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Mallorca
Sunday, March 9 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Roma

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Empoli 0-1 Roma
Sunday, March 9 at 5pm in Serie A

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 48.72%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Roma had a probability of 25.59%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.2%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (8%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
Athletic BilbaoDrawRoma
48.72% (0.12 0.12)25.69% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)25.59% (-0.07 -0.07)
Both teams to score 50.31% (0.088999999999999 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.03% (0.148 0.15)52.97% (-0.149 -0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.43% (0.126 0.13)74.57% (-0.127 -0.13)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.24% (0.114 0.11)21.76% (-0.113 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.06% (0.174 0.17)54.94% (-0.174 -0.17)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.3% (0.019999999999996 0.02)35.7% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.53% (0.023 0.02)72.47% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Athletic Bilbao 48.72%
    Roma 25.59%
    Draw 25.68%
Athletic BilbaoDrawRoma
1-0 @ 11.84% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-1 @ 9.31% (0.014999999999999 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.04% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.73% (0.024 0.02)
3-0 @ 4.59% (0.02 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.44% (0.014 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.8% (0.015 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.75% (0.014 0.01)
4-2 @ 0.93% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 48.72%
1-1 @ 12.2% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 7.77% (-0.045 -0.04)
2-2 @ 4.79% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 0.92%
Total : 25.68%
0-1 @ 8% (-0.042 -0.04)
1-2 @ 6.28% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.12% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-3 @ 2.16% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 1.65% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-3 @ 1.42% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 25.59%

How you voted: Athletic Bilbao vs Roma

Athletic Bilbao
51.9%
Draw
20.3%
Roma
27.8%
212
Head to Head
Mar 6, 2025 8pm
Round of 16 1st Leg
Roma
2-1
Athletic Bilbao
Angelino (56'), Shomurodov (90+3')
Shomurodov (72')
Williams (50')
Alvarez (19'), Jauregizar (34'), Sannadi Harrouch (39')
Alvarez (85')
> Preview
Sep 26, 2024 8pm
League Stage
Roma
1-1
Athletic Bilbao
Dovbyk (32')
Kone (44'), Baldanzi (63'), de Marcos (83')
Paredes (85')
Gorosabel (44'), Berchiche (56'), Williams (90+5'), Williams (90+4')
> Preview