Europa League

Europa League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Mar 6, 2025 at 8pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
2 - 1
Athletic Bilbao

(Athletic Bilbao win 4-3 on aggregate)

Angelino (56'), Shomurodov (90+3')
Shomurodov (72')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Williams (50')
Alvarez (19'), Jauregizar (34'), Sannadi Harrouch (39')
Alvarez (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Roma and Athletic Bilbao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Roma 2-1 Como
Sunday, March 2 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Atletico 1-0 Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, March 1 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 43.21%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 29.62% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (9.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.

Result
Roma	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
43.21% ( -0.25)	27.18% ( -0.1)	29.62% ( 0.35)

Both teams to score 48.69% (

0.47)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.59% (

0.51)

56.41% (

-0.51)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.58% (

0.41)

77.42% (

-0.41)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.13% (

0.11)

25.88% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.14% (

0.15)

60.86% (

-0.14)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.69% (

0.54)

34.32% (

-0.54)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.98% (

0.57)

71.02% (

-0.57)

Score Analysis

Roma 43.21%

Athletic Bilbao 29.62%

Draw 27.17%

Roma	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 12% ( -0.2) 2-1 @ 8.68% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.11% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 3.91% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.66% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.09% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.24% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.2% Total : 43.21%	1-1 @ 12.83% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 8.88% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 4.64% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.17%	0-1 @ 9.5% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 6.87% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 5.08% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.26% Total : 29.62%