

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aldershot Town win with a probability of 40.56%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 35.43% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aldershot Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.48%) and 2-0 (5.93%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-2 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aldershot Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aldershot Town | Draw | Hartlepool United |
| 40.56% ( | 24.01% ( | 35.43% ( |
| Both teams to score 61.19% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.87% ( | 41.13% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.47% ( | 63.52% ( |
| Aldershot Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.51% ( | 20.48% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.04% ( | 52.96% ( |
| Hartlepool United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.96% ( | 23.04% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.14% ( | 56.86% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Aldershot Town | Draw | Hartlepool United |
| 2-1 @ 8.71% ( 1-0 @ 7.48% ( 2-0 @ 5.93% ( 3-1 @ 4.6% ( 3-2 @ 3.38% ( 3-0 @ 3.14% ( 4-1 @ 1.82% ( 4-2 @ 1.34% ( 4-0 @ 1.24% ( Other @ 2.91% Total : 40.56% | 1-1 @ 10.98% ( 2-2 @ 6.39% ( 0-0 @ 4.72% ( 3-3 @ 1.65% ( Other @ 0.26% Total : 24.01% | 1-2 @ 8.06% ( 0-1 @ 6.93% ( 0-2 @ 5.09% ( 1-3 @ 3.95% ( 2-3 @ 3.13% ( 0-3 @ 2.49% ( 1-4 @ 1.45% ( 2-4 @ 1.15% ( 0-4 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 2.29% Total : 35.43% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Barnet | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 80 | 32 | 48 | 85 |
| 2 | York City | 37 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 69 | 35 | 34 | 74 |
| 3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 38 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 59 | 32 | 27 | 72 |
| 4 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 38 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 55 | 40 | 15 | 63 |
| 5 | Halifax TownHalifax | 37 | 17 | 11 | 9 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 62 |
| 6 | Gateshead | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 66 | 52 | 14 | 60 |
| 7 | Rochdale | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 51 | 33 | 18 | 56 |
| 8 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 55 |
| 9 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 37 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 48 | 42 | 6 | 53 |
| 10 | Eastleigh | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 52 | 47 | 5 | 53 |
| 11 | Tamworth | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 50 | 58 | -8 | 51 |
| 12 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 37 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 49 | 50 | -1 | 50 |
| 13 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 47 |
| 14 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 36 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 46 |
| 15 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 46 |
| 16 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 46 |
| 17 | Braintree TownBraintree | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 45 |
| 18 | Woking | 36 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 41 |
| 19 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 38 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 39 |
| 20 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 36 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 39 |
| 21 | Boston UnitedBoston | 36 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 37 |
| 22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 38 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 43 | 69 | -26 | 37 |
| 23 | Fylde | 37 | 10 | 6 | 21 | 43 | 70 | -27 | 36 |
| 24 | Ebbsfleet | 38 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 27 | 80 | -53 | 17 |
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