

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 44.39%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 30.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sutton United | Draw | Hartlepool United | 
| 44.39% (  0.05) | 24.64% (  -0.02) | 30.96% (  -0.04) | 
| Both teams to score 57.41% (  0.05) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 54.57% (  0.06) | 45.43% (  -0.07) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 32.24% (  0.06) | 67.76% (  -0.06) | 
| Sutton United Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 79.45% (  0.05) | 20.55% (  -0.05) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.93% (  0.08) | 53.07% (  -0.08) | 
| Hartlepool United Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 72.25% (  0.01) | 27.75% (  -0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.68% (  0.01) | 63.32% (  -0.01) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Sutton United | Draw | Hartlepool United | 
| 2-1 @ 9.15% (  0) 1-0 @ 9.02% (  -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.14% (  0) 3-1 @ 4.83% (  0.01) 3-0 @ 3.77% (  0.01) 3-2 @ 3.09% (  0.01) 4-1 @ 1.91% (  0.01) 4-0 @ 1.49% (  0.01) 4-2 @ 1.22% (  0) Other @ 2.78% Total : 44.4% | 1-1 @ 11.56% (  -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.87% (  0) 0-0 @ 5.7% (  -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.32% (  0) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.63% | 1-2 @ 7.42% (  -0) 0-1 @ 7.31% (  -0.02) 0-2 @ 4.69% (  -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.17% (  -0) 2-3 @ 2.51% (  0) 0-3 @ 2% (  -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.86% Total : 30.96% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Barnet | 36 | 24 | 7 | 5 | 78 | 32 | 46 | 79 | 
| 2 | York City | 35 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 34 | 33 | 70 | 
| 3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 35 | 18 | 13 | 4 | 54 | 28 | 26 | 67 | 
| 4 | Gateshead | 35 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 60 | 
| 5 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 35 | 15 | 13 | 7 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 58 | 
| 6 | Halifax TownHalifax | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 56 | 
| 7 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 55 | 39 | 16 | 55 | 
| 8 | Eastleigh | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 48 | 41 | 7 | 51 | 
| 9 | Rochdale | 31 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 49 | 
| 10 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 49 | 
| 11 | Tamworth | 36 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 47 | 
| 12 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 35 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 46 | 
| 13 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 45 | 44 | 1 | 44 | 
| 14 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 36 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 44 | 
| 15 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 35 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 50 | 53 | -3 | 43 | 
| 16 | Woking | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 40 | 
| 17 | Braintree TownBraintree | 35 | 10 | 9 | 16 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 39 | 
| 18 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 33 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 37 | 
| 19 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 35 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 36 | 
| 20 | Fylde | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 42 | 65 | -23 | 36 | 
| 21 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 35 | 
| 22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 35 | 9 | 7 | 19 | 41 | 67 | -26 | 34 | 
| 23 | Boston UnitedBoston | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 30 | 49 | -19 | 27 | 
| 24 | Ebbsfleet | 36 | 1 | 11 | 24 | 25 | 78 | -53 | 14 | 
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