

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 51.77%. A win for Aldershot Town had a probability of 25.13% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.15%). The likeliest Aldershot Town win was 1-2 (6.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sutton United | Draw | Aldershot Town |
| 51.77% ( | 23.1% ( | 25.13% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.15% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.58% ( | 42.42% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.18% ( | 64.82% ( |
| Sutton United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.55% ( | 16.45% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.86% ( | 46.14% ( |
| Aldershot Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.6% ( | 30.4% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.4% ( | 66.6% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sutton United | Draw | Aldershot Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.7% ( 1-0 @ 9.03% ( 2-0 @ 8.15% ( 3-1 @ 5.84% ( 3-0 @ 4.9% ( 3-2 @ 3.47% ( 4-1 @ 2.63% ( 4-0 @ 2.21% ( 4-2 @ 1.57% ( 5-1 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 3.33% Total : 51.77% | 1-1 @ 10.74% ( 2-2 @ 5.77% ( 0-0 @ 5% ( 3-3 @ 1.38% ( Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.1% | 1-2 @ 6.4% ( 0-1 @ 5.95% ( 0-2 @ 3.55% ( 1-3 @ 2.54% ( 2-3 @ 2.29% ( 0-3 @ 1.41% ( Other @ 2.99% Total : 25.13% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Barnet | 43 | 28 | 9 | 6 | 87 | 37 | 50 | 93 |
| 2 | York City | 43 | 27 | 8 | 8 | 90 | 41 | 49 | 89 |
| 3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 43 | 20 | 16 | 7 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 76 |
| 4 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 43 | 18 | 15 | 10 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 69 |
| 5 | Rochdale | 42 | 19 | 10 | 13 | 63 | 41 | 22 | 67 |
| 6 | Halifax TownHalifax | 43 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 48 | 40 | 8 | 67 |
| 7 | Gateshead | 43 | 19 | 9 | 15 | 73 | 63 | 10 | 66 |
| 8 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 43 | 15 | 16 | 12 | 52 | 48 | 4 | 61 |
| 9 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 43 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 63 | 55 | 8 | 60 |
| 10 | Tamworth | 43 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 60 | 65 | -5 | 60 |
| 11 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 43 | 13 | 17 | 13 | 54 | 54 | 0 | 56 |
| 12 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 43 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 55 | 59 | -4 | 56 |
| 13 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 43 | 15 | 11 | 17 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 56 |
| 14 | Eastleigh | 43 | 13 | 16 | 14 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 55 |
| 15 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 42 | 15 | 9 | 18 | 57 | 61 | -4 | 54 |
| 16 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 43 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 67 | 75 | -8 | 54 |
| 17 | Woking | 43 | 12 | 17 | 14 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 53 |
| 18 | Braintree TownBraintree | 43 | 14 | 10 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 52 |
| 19 | Boston UnitedBoston | 43 | 14 | 10 | 19 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 52 |
| 20 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 43 | 12 | 13 | 18 | 52 | 71 | -19 | 49 |
| 21 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 43 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 54 | 60 | -6 | 47 |
| 22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 43 | 12 | 9 | 22 | 51 | 74 | -23 | 45 |
| 23 | Fylde | 43 | 11 | 6 | 26 | 47 | 78 | -31 | 39 |
| 24 | Ebbsfleet | 43 | 3 | 13 | 27 | 38 | 90 | -52 | 22 |
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