Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Rotterdam win with a probability of 43.48%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 33.3% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Rotterdam win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.96%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sparta Rotterdam in this match.
| Result | ||
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 43.48% ( | 23.22% ( | 33.3% ( |
| Both teams to score 63.56% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.2% | 37.8% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.95% | 60.05% ( |
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.16% ( | 17.83% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.42% ( | 48.58% ( |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.35% ( | 22.65% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.72% ( | 56.28% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-1 @ 8.92% ( 1-0 @ 6.96% ( 2-0 @ 6% ( 3-1 @ 5.12% 3-2 @ 3.8% 3-0 @ 3.45% ( 4-1 @ 2.21% 4-2 @ 1.64% 4-0 @ 1.49% Other @ 3.88% Total : 43.48% | 1-1 @ 10.34% 2-2 @ 6.62% 0-0 @ 4.04% 3-3 @ 1.88% Other @ 0.33% Total : 23.22% | 1-2 @ 7.68% ( 0-1 @ 6% ( 0-2 @ 4.45% ( 1-3 @ 3.8% 2-3 @ 3.28% 0-3 @ 2.21% 1-4 @ 1.41% ( 2-4 @ 1.22% Other @ 3.26% Total : 33.3% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 28 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 60 | 21 | 39 | 70 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 29 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 86 | 33 | 53 | 64 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 29 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 64 | 32 | 32 | 59 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 50 | 41 | 9 | 53 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 54 | 40 | 14 | 47 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 47 | 32 | 15 | 46 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 52 | 46 | 6 | 46 |
| 8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 34 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 34 |
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 33 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 33 |
| 12 | Heracles | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 32 |
| 13 | Groningen | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 32 |
| 14 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 31 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 30 |
| 16 | Willem II | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 24 |
| 17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 29 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 58 | -23 | 19 |
| 18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 29 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 20 | 57 | -37 | 19 |
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