Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 38.51%. A win for NAC Breda had a probability of 35.81% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.46%) and 0-2 (6.35%). The likeliest NAC Breda win was 1-0 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| NAC Breda | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 35.81% ( | 25.68% ( | 38.51% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.3% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.21% ( | 48.78% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.11% ( | 70.89% ( |
| NAC Breda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.61% ( | 26.38% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.46% ( | 61.54% ( |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.12% ( | 24.88% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.51% ( | 59.49% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| NAC Breda | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 1-0 @ 8.75% ( 2-1 @ 8.11% ( 2-0 @ 5.83% ( 3-1 @ 3.6% ( 3-0 @ 2.59% ( 3-2 @ 2.5% ( 4-1 @ 1.2% ( Other @ 3.24% Total : 35.81% | 1-1 @ 12.16% ( 0-0 @ 6.56% ( 2-2 @ 5.64% ( 3-3 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.67% | 0-1 @ 9.13% ( 1-2 @ 8.46% ( 0-2 @ 6.35% ( 1-3 @ 3.93% ( 0-3 @ 2.95% ( 2-3 @ 2.62% ( 1-4 @ 1.37% ( 0-4 @ 1.03% ( 2-4 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 1.78% Total : 38.51% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 31 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 74 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 31 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 93 | 35 | 58 | 70 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 31 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 72 | 33 | 39 | 65 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 31 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 62 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 51 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 34 | 17 | 50 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 47 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 40 |
| 9 | Groningen | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 38 |
| 10 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 38 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 31 | 10 | 6 | 15 | 35 | 53 | -18 | 36 |
| 12 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 35 |
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 34 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 34 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 32 |
| 16 | Willem II | 32 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 25 |
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 31 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 21 | 59 | -38 | 20 |
| 18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 36 | 68 | -32 | 19 |
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