Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 37.16%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 32.55% and a draw had a probability of 30.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.36%) and 1-2 (7.25%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (12.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Luton Town in this match.
| Result | ||
| Birmingham City | Draw | Luton Town |
| 32.55% | 30.28% | 37.16% |
| Both teams to score 41.23% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.91% | 66.09% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.35% | 84.64% |
| Birmingham City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.64% | 37.36% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.85% | 74.14% |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.82% | 34.17% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.13% | 70.86% |
| Score Analysis |
| Birmingham City | Draw | Luton Town |
| 1-0 @ 12.57% 2-1 @ 6.65% 2-0 @ 6.19% 3-1 @ 2.18% 3-0 @ 2.03% 3-2 @ 1.17% Other @ 1.77% Total : 32.55% | 1-1 @ 13.49% 0-0 @ 12.76% 2-2 @ 3.57% Other @ 0.45% Total : 30.27% | 0-1 @ 13.7% 0-2 @ 7.36% 1-2 @ 7.25% 0-3 @ 2.63% 1-3 @ 2.59% 2-3 @ 1.28% Other @ 2.35% Total : 37.16% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Burnley | 33 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 64 | 28 | 36 | 73 |
| 2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 54 | 30 | 24 | 61 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 56 | 38 | 18 | 57 |
| 4 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 33 | 16 | 4 | 13 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 52 |
| 5 | Millwall | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 50 |
| 6 | Luton TownLuton | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 39 | 32 | 7 | 50 |
| 7 | Watford | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 41 | 37 | 4 | 50 |
| 8 | Sunderland | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 49 |
| 9 | Norwich CityNorwich | 33 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 49 |
| 10 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 42 | 36 | 6 | 45 |
| 11 | Coventry CityCoventry | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 33 | 2 | 45 |
| 12 | Swansea CitySwansea | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 42 |
| 13 | Hull City | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 42 |
| 14 | Preston North EndPreston | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 42 |
| 15 | Bristol City | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 41 |
| 16 | Reading | 32 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 41 |
| 17 | Stoke CityStoke | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 40 |
| 18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 39 |
| 19 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 38 |
| 20 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 33 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 36 |
| 21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 35 |
| 22 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 31 |
| 23 | Blackpool | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 31 |
| 24 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 29 | 50 | -21 | 31 |
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