Boavista will travel to face Arouca at the Estadio Municipal de Arouca on Saturday, hoping to pull off a dramatic final-day escape for a second Primeira Liga season in a row.
While the hosts have already secured their top-flight status, the relegation battle below them remains red hot, with any of the bottom four sides still at risk of suffering the drop on the final day.
Match preview
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The 2024–25 Primeira Liga season has been another punishing campaign for Boavista, which included a cruel run of injuries, including simultaneous setbacks to both first-choice goalkeepers that forced the club into emergency solutions between the sticks.
On top of that, reports of unpaid wages sparked protests and internal unrest earlier in the season, while as recently as last month - just ahead of their clash with Sporting - the Bessa Stadium was left without electricity due to outstanding debts to the supplier, highlighting the deepening financial turmoil at the club.
They also parted ways with two managers this season, Cristiano Bacci and Lito Vidigal, but found a glimmer of hope with the arrival of 71-year-old Scottish coach Stuart Baxter, who injected fresh belief by securing two wins in his first three matches to keep Os Axadrezados' survival hopes alive.
Boavista head into the final day three points adrift of AVS and Farense after a 2-1 defeat to Porto, but a win in Arouca - combined with losses for the two sides directly above them - would see them move into the relegation playoff spot thanks to a superior head-to-head record.
The parallels with last season's last-minute incredible escape are growing stronger, and if Boavista manage to stay up, it will stand as a triumph of character and resilience, but if they fall short, there is no telling how long it may take until they return to the top flight, given the issues they currently have behind he scenes.
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Meanwhile, after back-to-back top-half finishes in the Primeira Liga, including a Europa Conference League qualifier spot in 2022–23, Arouca have suffered a significant drop-off this season, managing just 35 points from 33 matches.
Like their upcoming opponents, Arouquenses also experienced a leadership change this season, with Spaniard tactician Gonzalo Garcia departing after just 10 games before Vasco Seabra was brought in to try and steady the ship.
The new boss has delivered just six wins, along with 10 draws and eight defeats in all competitions since arriving, and the only real positive for the Lobos is that a win here could still see them finish in the top half of the table, but that also relies upon Rio Ave and Moreirense, currently 10th and 11th in the standings, respectively, to lose their final matches.
However, Arouca's recent form suggests that securing all three points will not be straightforward this weekend, as they are winless in their last three games after playing out a 1-1 draw with Gil Vicente last week, and have managed just two wins in their last 13 league matches since early February.
Team News
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Arouca will be without defender Morlaye Sylla for this match, as the Guinea international picked up his fifth yellow card of the season during last week's draw against Gil Vicente, triggering an automatic suspension.
The hosts are also expected to be missing at least three players through injury this week, including Tiago Esgaio (hamstring), David Simao (broken leg) and long-term absentee Nino Galovic (knee).
In a fiery conclusion to last week's Invicta Derby, Osman Kakay received his second yellow card in stoppage time, resulting in a suspension that will force him to watch this match from the sidelines.
The Sierra Leone international will join a host of injury absentees in a watching brief, including the likes of Diego Llorente, Joao Goncalves, Luis Pires, Layvin Kurzawa, Tomas Silva and Marco Ribeiro.
Arouca possible starting lineup:
Valido; Pinto, Popovic, Lamba, Weverson; Loum, Santos; Mansilla, Jason, Garcia; Araujo
Boavista possible starting lineup:
Vaclik; Lystsov, Abascal, Fogning, Ferreira; Reisinho, Perez; Agra, Silva, Diaby; Bozenik
We say: Arouca 2-1 Boavista
The onus is firmly on Boavista to go out and get a result in this do-or-die clash, but their urgency to push for the win could leave them exposed at the back, which is something Arouca will be looking to exploit.
The hosts have had the upper hand in recent meetings, winning the last three league encounters between the sides, including a convincing 3-1 victory in the reverse fixture earlier this season, and we feel they will come out on top again here, ultimately condemning the visitors to relegation.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Devesh Jaganath
