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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 38.3%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 33.57% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.99%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (10.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
Result | ||
Grimsby Town | Draw | Newport County |
38.3% ( 1.7) | 28.13% ( -0.23) | 33.57% ( -1.47) |
Both teams to score 47.2% ( 0.52) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.1% ( 0.71) | 58.9% ( -0.71) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.61% ( 0.55) | 79.39% ( -0.55) |
Grimsby Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.22% ( 1.4) | 29.78% ( -1.4) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.15% ( 1.66) | 65.85% ( -1.66) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.22% ( -0.61) | 32.78% ( 0.61) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.66% ( -0.69) | 69.34% ( 0.69) |
Score Analysis |
Grimsby Town | Draw | Newport County |
1-0 @ 11.82% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 7.99% ( 0.26) 2-0 @ 7.16% ( 0.35) 3-1 @ 3.23% ( 0.22) 3-0 @ 2.89% ( 0.25) 3-2 @ 1.8% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 0.98% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.42% Total : 38.29% | 1-1 @ 13.18% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 9.76% ( -0.26) 2-2 @ 4.46% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.73% Total : 28.13% | 0-1 @ 10.88% ( -0.49) 1-2 @ 7.36% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 6.07% ( -0.38) 1-3 @ 2.73% ( -0.11) 0-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.18) 2-3 @ 1.66% Other @ 2.61% Total : 33.56% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leyton Orient | 40 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 54 | 27 | 27 | 81 |
2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 41 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 55 | 38 | 17 | 73 |
3 | Stockport CountyStockport | 41 | 20 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 33 | 24 | 70 |
4 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 41 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 70 |
5 | Stevenage | 40 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 54 | 37 | 17 | 70 |
6 | Bradford CityBradford | 40 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 68 |
7 | Salford City | 41 | 19 | 9 | 13 | 64 | 48 | 16 | 66 |
8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 40 | 18 | 11 | 11 | 64 | 49 | 15 | 65 |
9 | BarrowBarrow | 41 | 18 | 7 | 16 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 61 |
10 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 41 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 57 |
11 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 41 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 53 |
12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 40 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 51 |
13 | Walsall | 41 | 11 | 18 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 51 |
14 | Grimsby Town | 40 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 51 |
15 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 41 | 15 | 6 | 20 | 41 | 57 | -16 | 51 |
16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 40 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 48 |
17 | AFC Wimbledon | 42 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 45 | 51 | -6 | 47 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 40 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 47 |
19 | Gillingham | 41 | 12 | 11 | 18 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 47 |
20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 41 | 10 | 12 | 19 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 42 |
21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 40 | 9 | 14 | 17 | 47 | 59 | -12 | 41 |
22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 41 | 8 | 15 | 18 | 48 | 70 | -22 | 39 |
23 | Crawley TownCrawley | 41 | 9 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 68 | -25 | 38 |
24 | Rochdale | 41 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 33 |
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