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Championship | Gameweek 39
Mar 29, 2025 at 3pm UK
Turf Moor
Bristol City

Burnley
1 - 0
Bristol City

Flemming (16')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Burnley and Bristol City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Swansea 0-2 Burnley
Saturday, March 15 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Bristol City 2-1 Norwich
Friday, March 14 at 8pm in Championship

We said: Burnley 1-0 Bristol City

Fresh off the back of a two-week hiatus from club action, the Burnley squad should be raring to boost their top-two hopes with a routine Turf Moor triumph. Bristol City will be desperate to make a statement in their playoff push with a shock success in Lancashire, but we feel that the plucky Robins are set to suffer a narrow defeat. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 52.36%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Bristol City had a probability of 21.51%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.63%) and 2-1 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for a Bristol City win it was 0-1 (8.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Burnley in this match.

Result
BurnleyDrawBristol City
52.36% (-0.27 -0.27) 26.13% (0.096 0.1) 21.51% (0.172 0.17)
Both teams to score 44.82% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.03% (-0.176 -0.18)57.97% (0.17400000000001 0.17)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.33% (-0.14 -0.14)78.66% (0.136 0.14)
Burnley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.74% (-0.19 -0.19)22.25% (0.188 0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.3% (-0.285 -0.28)55.69% (0.283 0.28)
Bristol City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.65% (0.076000000000001 0.08)42.35% (-0.080000000000005 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.26% (0.065999999999999 0.07)78.73% (-0.067000000000007 -0.07)
Score Analysis
    Burnley 52.35%
    Bristol City 21.51%
    Draw 26.12%
BurnleyDrawBristol City
1-0 @ 14.16% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 10.63% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
2-1 @ 9.14% (-0.023 -0.02)
3-0 @ 5.33% (-0.055000000000001 -0.06)
3-1 @ 4.58% (-0.037 -0.04)
4-0 @ 2% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.97% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.72% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 52.35%
1-1 @ 12.16% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 9.42% (0.061999999999999 0.06)
2-2 @ 3.93% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 26.12%
0-1 @ 8.1% (0.071000000000002 0.07)
1-2 @ 5.23% (0.028 0.03)
0-2 @ 3.48% (0.038 0.04)
1-3 @ 1.5% (0.011 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.13% (0.002 0)
0-3 @ 1% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 1.09%
Total : 21.51%

How you voted: Burnley vs Bristol City

Burnley
83.9%
Draw
6.5%
Bristol City
9.7%
62
Head to Head
Nov 23, 2024 12.30pm
Gameweek 16
Bristol City
0-1
Burnley

McNally (22'), Twine (90+8'), Dickie (90+4')
Anthony (23')
Esteve (67'), Mejbri (69'), Trafford (70'), Pires (74')
Apr 29, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 45
Bristol City
1-2
Burnley
Conway (60')
Benson (33'), Rodriguez (62')
Sep 17, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 11
Burnley
2-1
Bristol City
Benson (4'), Rodriguez (67')
Wells (27')
Jan 28, 2017 3pm
Fourth Round
Burnley
2-0
Bristol City
Vokes (45'), Defour (68')
Tarkowski (67'), Darikwa (92')
Dec 28, 2015 3pm
Burnley
4-0
Bristol City
Gray (37', 45', 78'), Arfield (71')
Jones (45')

Baker (32')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CLeeds UnitedLeeds4629134953065100
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd462881063362790
4Sunderland4621131258441476
5Coventry CityCoventry46209176458669
6Bristol City461717125955468
7Blackburn RoversBlackburn46199185348566
8Millwall461812164749-266
9West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom4615191257471064
10Middlesbrough461810186456864
11Swansea CitySwansea461710195156-561
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds461513186069-958
13Norwich CityNorwich461415177168357
14Watford46169215361-857
15Queens Park RangersQPR461414185363-1056
16Portsmouth461412205871-1354
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd461314194965-1653
18Stoke CityStoke461215194562-1751
19Derby CountyDerby461311224856-850
20Preston North EndPreston461020164859-1150
21Hull City461213214454-1049
RLuton TownLuton461310234569-2449
RPlymouth ArgylePlymouth461113225188-3746
RCardiff CityCardiff46917204873-2544


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