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Championship | Gameweek 39
Mar 29, 2025 at 3pm UK
Turf Moor
Bristol City

Burnley
1 - 0
Bristol City

Flemming (16')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Burnley and Bristol City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Swansea 0-2 Burnley
Saturday, March 15 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Bristol City 2-1 Norwich
Friday, March 14 at 8pm in Championship

We said: Burnley 1-0 Bristol City

Fresh off the back of a two-week hiatus from club action, the Burnley squad should be raring to boost their top-two hopes with a routine Turf Moor triumph. Bristol City will be desperate to make a statement in their playoff push with a shock success in Lancashire, but we feel that the plucky Robins are set to suffer a narrow defeat. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 52.36%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Bristol City had a probability of 21.51%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.63%) and 2-1 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for a Bristol City win it was 0-1 (8.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Burnley in this match.

Result
BurnleyDrawBristol City
52.36% (-0.27 -0.27) 26.13% (0.096 0.1) 21.51% (0.172 0.17)
Both teams to score 44.82% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.03% (-0.176 -0.18)57.97% (0.17400000000001 0.17)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.33% (-0.14 -0.14)78.66% (0.136 0.14)
Burnley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.74% (-0.19 -0.19)22.25% (0.188 0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.3% (-0.285 -0.28)55.69% (0.283 0.28)
Bristol City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.65% (0.076000000000001 0.08)42.35% (-0.080000000000005 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.26% (0.065999999999999 0.07)78.73% (-0.067000000000007 -0.07)
Score Analysis
    Burnley 52.35%
    Bristol City 21.51%
    Draw 26.12%
BurnleyDrawBristol City
1-0 @ 14.16% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 10.63% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
2-1 @ 9.14% (-0.023 -0.02)
3-0 @ 5.33% (-0.055000000000001 -0.06)
3-1 @ 4.58% (-0.037 -0.04)
4-0 @ 2% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.97% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.72% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 52.35%
1-1 @ 12.16% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 9.42% (0.061999999999999 0.06)
2-2 @ 3.93% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 26.12%
0-1 @ 8.1% (0.071000000000002 0.07)
1-2 @ 5.23% (0.028 0.03)
0-2 @ 3.48% (0.038 0.04)
1-3 @ 1.5% (0.011 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.13% (0.002 0)
0-3 @ 1% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 1.09%
Total : 21.51%

How you voted: Burnley vs Bristol City

Burnley
83.9%
Draw
6.5%
Bristol City
9.7%
62
Head to Head
Nov 23, 2024 12.30pm
Gameweek 16
Bristol City
0-1
Burnley

McNally (22'), Twine (90+8'), Dickie (90+4')
Anthony (23')
Esteve (67'), Mejbri (69'), Trafford (70'), Pires (74')
Apr 29, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 45
Bristol City
1-2
Burnley
Conway (60')
Benson (33'), Rodriguez (62')
Sep 17, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 11
Burnley
2-1
Bristol City
Benson (4'), Rodriguez (67')
Wells (27')
Jan 28, 2017 3pm
Fourth Round
Burnley
2-0
Bristol City
Vokes (45'), Defour (68')
Tarkowski (67'), Darikwa (92')
Dec 28, 2015 3pm
Burnley
4-0
Bristol City
Gray (37', 45', 78'), Arfield (71')
Jones (45')

Baker (32')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds452813493296497
2Burnley452716266155197
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd452871062352789
4Sunderland4521131158431576
5Bristol City451716125753467
6Coventry CityCoventry45199176258466
7Millwall451812154646066
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn45198185247565
9Middlesbrough4518101764541064
10West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom451419125244861
11Swansea CitySwansea45179194853-560
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds451512185968-957
13Watford45168215260-856
14Norwich CityNorwich451315176766154
15Queens Park RangersQPR451314185263-1153
16Portsmouth451411205770-1353
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd451313194662-1652
18Stoke CityStoke451214194562-1750
19Derby CountyDerby451310224856-849
20Preston North EndPreston451019164657-1149
21Luton TownLuton451310224264-2249
22Hull City451212214353-1048
23Plymouth ArgylePlymouth451113215086-3646
24Cardiff CityCardiff45917194669-2344


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