Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 69.08%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Crawley Town had a probability of 11.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.46%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.07%), while for a Crawley Town win it was 0-1 (4.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stevenage would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Stevenage | Draw | Crawley Town |
| 69.08% ( | 19.12% ( | 11.79% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.31% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.54% ( | 46.46% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.26% ( | 68.73% ( |
| Stevenage Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.66% ( | 12.33% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.86% ( | 38.14% ( |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.68% ( | 48.31% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 16.54% ( | 83.46% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Stevenage | Draw | Crawley Town |
| 2-0 @ 13.04% 1-0 @ 12.46% ( 2-1 @ 9.49% ( 3-0 @ 9.1% ( 3-1 @ 6.62% ( 4-0 @ 4.76% ( 4-1 @ 3.47% ( 3-2 @ 2.41% ( 5-0 @ 1.99% ( 5-1 @ 1.45% ( 4-2 @ 1.26% ( Other @ 3% Total : 69.07% | 1-1 @ 9.07% ( 0-0 @ 5.96% ( 2-2 @ 3.45% ( Other @ 0.64% Total : 19.12% | 0-1 @ 4.33% ( 1-2 @ 3.3% ( 0-2 @ 1.58% ( Other @ 2.58% Total : 11.79% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 70 |
| 2 | Stevenage | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 43 | 25 | 18 | 57 |
| 3 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 32 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 49 | 32 | 17 | 55 |
| 4 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 31 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 52 |
| 5 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Stockport CountyStockport | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 46 | 29 | 17 | 51 |
| 7 | Salford City | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 49 |
| 8 | Bradford CityBradford | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 29 | 8 | 48 |
| 9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 47 |
| 10 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 31 | 14 | 4 | 13 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 46 |
| 11 | Swindon TownSwindon | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 40 | 35 | 5 | 45 |
| 12 | BarrowBarrow | 32 | 13 | 5 | 14 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 44 |
| 13 | AFC Wimbledon | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 42 |
| 14 | Walsall | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 41 |
| 15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 41 |
| 16 | Grimsby Town | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 36 |
| 17 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 36 |
| 18 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 35 |
| 19 | Newport CountyNewport | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 34 |
| 20 | Gillingham | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 30 |
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 29 |
| 22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 33 | 58 | -25 | 27 |
| 23 | Crawley TownCrawley | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 26 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 32 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 21 |
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