Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.59%. A win for Sydney FC had a probability of 23.11% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.85%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Sydney FC win was 1-2 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.