Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Arouca win with a probability of 42.94%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes has a probability of 32.53% and a draw has a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.55%) and 2-0 (6.73%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win is 1-2 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.45%).
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 
| 42.94% (  -0.02) | 24.53% (  0.02) | 32.53% (  -0) | 
| Both teams to score 58.48% (  -0.08) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 55.68% (  -0.11) | 44.32% (  0.11) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 33.3% (  -0.1) | 66.69% (  0.11) | 
| Arouca Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 79.26% (  -0.05) | 20.74% (  0.05) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.63% (  -0.09) | 53.37% (  0.09) | 
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.79% (  -0.05) | 26.21% (  0.05) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.69% (  -0.07) | 61.31% (  0.07) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Arouca | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 
| 2-1 @ 9.01% (  -0) 1-0 @ 8.55% (  0.03) 2-0 @ 6.73% (  0.01) 3-1 @ 4.72% (  -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.53% (  -0) 3-2 @ 3.16% (  -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.86% (  -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.39% (  -0) 4-2 @ 1.24% (  -0.01) Other @ 2.75% Total : 42.94% | 1-1 @ 11.45% (  0.02) 2-2 @ 6.03% (  -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.44% (  0.03) 3-3 @ 1.41% (  -0.01) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.53% | 1-2 @ 7.67% 0-1 @ 7.28% (  0.02) 0-2 @ 4.87% (  0.01) 1-3 @ 3.42% (  -0) 2-3 @ 2.69% (  -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.18% 1-4 @ 1.15% (  -0) 2-4 @ 0.9% (  -0) Other @ 2.37% Total : 32.53% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 | 
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 | 
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 | 
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 | 
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 | 
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 | 
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 | 
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 | 
| 9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 | 
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 | 
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 | 
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 | 
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 | 
| 14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 | 
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 | 
| 16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 | 
| R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 | 
| R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 | 
| > Primeira Liga Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
