

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 37.01%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 36.06% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.1%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-0 (10.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Exeter City | Draw | Barnsley |
| 36.06% ( | 26.93% ( | 37.01% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.13% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.9% ( | 54.1% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.48% ( | 75.52% ( |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.22% ( | 28.78% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.37% ( | 64.62% ( |
| Barnsley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.79% ( | 28.21% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.09% ( | 63.91% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Exeter City | Draw | Barnsley |
| 1-0 @ 10.11% ( 2-1 @ 7.97% ( 2-0 @ 6.3% ( 3-1 @ 3.31% ( 3-0 @ 2.61% ( 3-2 @ 2.09% ( 4-1 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 2.63% Total : 36.05% | 1-1 @ 12.79% ( 0-0 @ 8.12% ( 2-2 @ 5.04% ( Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.93% | 0-1 @ 10.27% ( 1-2 @ 8.1% ( 0-2 @ 6.5% ( 1-3 @ 3.42% ( 0-3 @ 2.74% ( 2-3 @ 2.13% ( 1-4 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 2.77% Total : 37.01% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 37 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 63 | 25 | 38 | 86 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 39 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 54 | 30 | 24 | 77 |
| 3 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 38 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 65 | 36 | 29 | 74 |
| 4 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 39 | 20 | 9 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 69 |
| 5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 39 | 19 | 11 | 9 | 55 | 36 | 19 | 68 |
| 6 | Reading | 38 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 62 |
| 7 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 61 |
| 8 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 60 | 57 | 3 | 60 |
| 9 | Leyton Orient | 38 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 54 | 38 | 16 | 59 |
| 10 | Blackpool | 39 | 14 | 15 | 10 | 59 | 51 | 8 | 57 |
| 11 | Barnsley | 39 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 54 |
| 12 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 39 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 50 |
| 13 | Stevenage | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 49 |
| 14 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 38 | 13 | 8 | 17 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 47 |
| 15 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 57 | 63 | -6 | 45 |
| 16 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 45 |
| 17 | Exeter CityExeter | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 45 |
| 18 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 44 |
| 19 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 39 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 38 | 57 | -19 | 43 |
| 20 | Bristol Rovers | 39 | 12 | 6 | 21 | 40 | 63 | -23 | 42 |
| 21 | Burton Albion | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 36 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 39 | 9 | 9 | 21 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 36 |
| 23 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 39 | 7 | 10 | 22 | 37 | 63 | -26 | 31 |
| 24 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 38 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 35 | 66 | -31 | 28 |
| > League One Full Table | |||||||||
