Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 57.29%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 18.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.4%) and 1-2 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.37%), while for a Luton Town win it was 1-0 (6.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Luton Town | Draw | Watford | 
| 18.55% | 24.16% | 57.29% | 
| Both teams to score 45.95% | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 45.79% | 54.2% | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 24.39% | 75.6% | 
| Luton Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 56.57% | 43.43% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.35% | 79.65% | 
| Watford Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 81.23% | 18.77% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.83% | 50.17% | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Luton Town | Draw | Watford | 
| 1-0 @ 6.8% 2-1 @ 4.74% 2-0 @ 2.84% 3-1 @ 1.32% 3-2 @ 1.1% Other @ 1.75% Total : 18.55% | 1-1 @ 11.37% 0-0 @ 8.15% 2-2 @ 3.97% Other @ 0.67% Total : 24.16% | 0-1 @ 13.63% 0-2 @ 11.4% 1-2 @ 9.51% 0-3 @ 6.36% 1-3 @ 5.31% 0-4 @ 2.66% 1-4 @ 2.22% 2-3 @ 2.21% 2-4 @ 0.93% Other @ 3.04% Total : 57.27% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Burnley | 38 | 24 | 12 | 2 | 74 | 29 | 45 | 84 | 
| 2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 38 | 22 | 7 | 9 | 59 | 33 | 26 | 73 | 
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 39 | 20 | 7 | 12 | 71 | 46 | 25 | 67 | 
| 4 | Luton TownLuton | 39 | 18 | 13 | 8 | 48 | 35 | 13 | 67 | 
| 5 | Millwall | 39 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 48 | 40 | 8 | 61 | 
| 6 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 38 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 61 | 
| 7 | Norwich CityNorwich | 39 | 16 | 9 | 14 | 52 | 42 | 10 | 57 | 
| 8 | Coventry CityCoventry | 39 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 57 | 
| 9 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 56 | 
| 10 | Preston North EndPreston | 39 | 15 | 11 | 13 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 56 | 
| 11 | Watford | 39 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 55 | 
| 12 | Sunderland | 39 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 54 | 
| 13 | Stoke CityStoke | 39 | 14 | 9 | 16 | 52 | 45 | 7 | 51 | 
| 14 | Bristol City | 39 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 49 | 
| 15 | Swansea CitySwansea | 39 | 13 | 10 | 16 | 54 | 59 | -5 | 49 | 
| 16 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 39 | 13 | 9 | 17 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 48 | 
| 17 | Hull City | 39 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 48 | 
| 18 | Reading | 39 | 13 | 7 | 19 | 41 | 59 | -18 | 46 | 
| 19 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 39 | 11 | 9 | 19 | 38 | 60 | -22 | 42 | 
| 20 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 41 | 
| 21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 39 | 
| 22 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 39 | 10 | 9 | 20 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 39 | 
| 23 | Blackpool | 39 | 8 | 11 | 20 | 41 | 61 | -20 | 35 | 
| 24 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 39 | 8 | 13 | 18 | 34 | 59 | -25 | 34 | 
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