Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 48.29%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 26.47% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 0-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Watford in this match.
| Result | ||
| Watford | Draw | Luton Town | 
| 48.29% | 25.23% | 26.47% | 
| Both teams to score 52.45% | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 49.46% | 50.54% | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 27.54% | 72.46% | 
| Watford Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 79.05% | 20.95% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.31% | 53.69% | 
| Luton Town Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 66.34% | 33.66% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.69% | 70.31% | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Watford | Draw | Luton Town | 
| 1-0 @ 11.02% 2-1 @ 9.38% 2-0 @ 8.61% 3-1 @ 4.89% 3-0 @ 4.49% 3-2 @ 2.66% 4-1 @ 1.91% 4-0 @ 1.75% 4-2 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.54% Total : 48.29% | 1-1 @ 12% 0-0 @ 7.05% 2-2 @ 5.11% 3-3 @ 0.97% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.23% | 0-1 @ 7.68% 1-2 @ 6.53% 0-2 @ 4.18% 1-3 @ 2.37% 2-3 @ 1.85% 0-3 @ 1.52% Other @ 2.34% Total : 26.47% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Burnley | 38 | 24 | 12 | 2 | 74 | 29 | 45 | 84 | 
| 2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 38 | 22 | 7 | 9 | 59 | 33 | 26 | 73 | 
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 39 | 20 | 7 | 12 | 71 | 46 | 25 | 67 | 
| 4 | Luton TownLuton | 39 | 18 | 13 | 8 | 48 | 35 | 13 | 67 | 
| 5 | Millwall | 39 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 48 | 40 | 8 | 61 | 
| 6 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 38 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 61 | 
| 7 | Norwich CityNorwich | 39 | 16 | 9 | 14 | 52 | 42 | 10 | 57 | 
| 8 | Coventry CityCoventry | 39 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 57 | 
| 9 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 56 | 
| 10 | Preston North EndPreston | 39 | 15 | 11 | 13 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 56 | 
| 11 | Watford | 39 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 55 | 
| 12 | Sunderland | 39 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 54 | 
| 13 | Stoke CityStoke | 39 | 14 | 9 | 16 | 52 | 45 | 7 | 51 | 
| 14 | Bristol City | 39 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 49 | 
| 15 | Swansea CitySwansea | 39 | 13 | 10 | 16 | 54 | 59 | -5 | 49 | 
| 16 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 39 | 13 | 9 | 17 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 48 | 
| 17 | Hull City | 39 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 48 | 
| 18 | Reading | 39 | 13 | 7 | 19 | 41 | 59 | -18 | 46 | 
| 19 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 39 | 11 | 9 | 19 | 38 | 60 | -22 | 42 | 
| 20 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 41 | 
| 21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 39 | 
| 22 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 39 | 10 | 9 | 20 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 39 | 
| 23 | Blackpool | 39 | 8 | 11 | 20 | 41 | 61 | -20 | 35 | 
| 24 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 39 | 8 | 13 | 18 | 34 | 59 | -25 | 34 | 
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