

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 57.52%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 21.04%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.74%) and 0-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.87%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (5.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 21.04% ( | 21.45% ( | 57.52% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.57% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.57% ( | 39.43% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.23% ( | 61.77% ( |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.73% ( | 32.27% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.23% ( | 68.77% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.48% ( | 13.52% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59.43% ( | 40.57% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 5.58% ( 1-0 @ 4.93% ( 2-0 @ 2.79% ( 3-2 @ 2.11% ( 3-1 @ 2.11% ( 3-0 @ 1.05% ( Other @ 2.47% Total : 21.04% | 1-1 @ 9.87% ( 2-2 @ 5.59% ( 0-0 @ 4.36% ( 3-3 @ 1.41% ( Other @ 0.22% Total : 21.45% | 1-2 @ 9.88% ( 0-2 @ 8.74% ( 0-1 @ 8.73% ( 1-3 @ 6.59% ( 0-3 @ 5.83% ( 2-3 @ 3.73% ( 1-4 @ 3.3% ( 0-4 @ 2.92% ( 2-4 @ 1.86% 1-5 @ 1.32% ( 0-5 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 3.47% Total : 57.52% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 7 | 52 | 51 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 48 | 14 | 34 | 38 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 37 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 16 | 20 | 33 |
| 5 | Ajax | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 25 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 25 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 23 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 21 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 20 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 19 |
| 12 | Heracles | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 18 |
| 13 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 17 |
| 14 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 17 |
| 15 | Almere CityAlmere City | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 34 | -16 | 16 |
| 16 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 14 |
| 17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 40 | -22 | 11 |
| 18 | Vitesse | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 37 | -25 | 11 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
