Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 67.04%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 13.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.04%) and 1-2 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.95%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-0 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Mainz 05 | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 13.99% | 18.97% | 67.04% |
| Both teams to score 52.38% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.53% | 40.48% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.14% | 62.86% |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.96% | 41.04% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.41% | 77.59% |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.84% | 11.16% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 64.37% | 35.63% |
| Score Analysis |
| Mainz 05 | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 1-0 @ 4.08% 2-1 @ 3.98% 2-0 @ 1.82% 3-2 @ 1.3% 3-1 @ 1.18% Other @ 1.63% Total : 13.99% | 1-1 @ 8.95% 0-0 @ 4.58% 2-2 @ 4.37% 3-3 @ 0.95% Other @ 0.13% Total : 18.97% | 0-2 @ 11.01% 0-1 @ 10.04% 1-2 @ 9.81% 0-3 @ 8.05% 1-3 @ 7.17% 0-4 @ 4.41% 1-4 @ 3.93% 2-3 @ 3.19% 0-5 @ 1.94% 2-4 @ 1.75% 1-5 @ 1.72% Other @ 4.01% Total : 67.04% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 76 | 29 | 47 | 55 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 26 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 57 | 35 | 22 | 53 |
| 3 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 51 |
| 4 | Freiburg | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 39 | 35 | 4 | 47 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 45 |
| 6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 41 |
| 7 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 48 | 40 | 8 | 40 |
| 8 | Mainz 05Mainz | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 43 | 36 | 7 | 40 |
| 9 | Wolfsburg | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 39 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 31 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 31 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 29 |
| 13 | FC Koln | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 27 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 26 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 28 | 57 | -29 | 26 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 22 |
| 16 | Hertha Berlin | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 22 |
| 17 | Schalke 04Schalke | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 21 | 48 | -27 | 21 |
| 18 | Stuttgart | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 20 |
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