

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nashville SC win with a probability of 53.02%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for New York City FC had a probability of 23.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nashville SC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.27%), while for a New York City FC win it was 0-1 (6.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nashville SC in this match.
| Result | ||
| Nashville SC | Draw | New York City FC |
| 53.02% ( | 23.78% ( | 23.19% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.7% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.71% ( | 47.28% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.49% ( | 69.51% ( |
| Nashville SC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.22% ( | 17.78% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.51% ( | 48.49% ( |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.31% ( | 34.69% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.58% ( | 71.41% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Nashville SC | Draw | New York City FC |
| 1-0 @ 10.65% ( 2-1 @ 9.74% ( 2-0 @ 9.2% ( 3-1 @ 5.61% ( 3-0 @ 5.3% ( 3-2 @ 2.97% ( 4-1 @ 2.42% ( 4-0 @ 2.29% ( 4-2 @ 1.28% ( Other @ 3.57% Total : 53.02% | 1-1 @ 11.27% ( 0-0 @ 6.17% ( 2-2 @ 5.16% ( 3-3 @ 1.05% ( Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.77% | 0-1 @ 6.53% ( 1-2 @ 5.97% ( 0-2 @ 3.46% ( 1-3 @ 2.11% ( 2-3 @ 1.82% ( 0-3 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 2.09% Total : 23.19% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 27 |
| 2 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 26 |
| 3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 26 |
| 4 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | New York City FCNY City | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 24 |
| 6 | Nashville SCNashville | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Chicago Fire | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 22 |
| 9 | Orlando City | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 21 |
| 11 | New England RevolutionNew England | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 21 |
| 12 | DC United | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 16 |
| 13 | Toronto | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 13 |
| 15 | CF MontrealMontreal | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 6 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 28 |
| 2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Portland TimbersPortland | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 22 |
| 4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 19 |
| 7 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 22 | 5 | 17 |
| 8 | Dallas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 17 |
| 9 | Austin FCAustin | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 17 |
| 10 | St Louis City | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 13 |
| 11 | Houston DynamoHouston | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
| 12 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 29 | -17 | 7 |
| 15 | San Diego FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
