

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 51.23%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 24.54% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (6.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | New York City FC |
| 51.23% ( | 24.23% ( | 24.54% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.76% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.07% ( | 47.94% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.89% ( | 70.11% ( |
| Philadelphia Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.29% ( | 18.71% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.93% ( | 50.08% ( |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.13% ( | 33.87% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.47% ( | 70.54% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | New York City FC |
| 1-0 @ 10.62% 2-1 @ 9.64% ( 2-0 @ 8.9% ( 3-1 @ 5.38% ( 3-0 @ 4.97% ( 3-2 @ 2.92% ( 4-1 @ 2.26% ( 4-0 @ 2.08% ( 4-2 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 3.24% Total : 51.23% | 1-1 @ 11.5% ( 0-0 @ 6.34% ( 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 3-3 @ 1.05% Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.23% | 0-1 @ 6.86% ( 1-2 @ 6.23% ( 0-2 @ 3.72% ( 1-3 @ 2.25% ( 2-3 @ 1.88% ( 0-3 @ 1.34% ( Other @ 2.26% Total : 24.54% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 20 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 27 |
| 3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 23 |
| 4 | New York City FCNY City | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 20 |
| 5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 20 |
| 6 | Toronto | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 19 |
| 7 | Columbus Crew | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | DC United | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Nashville SCNashville | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Orlando City | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 13 |
| 12 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | CF MontrealMontreal | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 12 |
| 14 | Chicago Fire | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 7 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 21 |
| 4 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 | Austin FCAustin | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | St Louis City | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Portland TimbersPortland | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Dallas | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 10 |
