We say: Roma 2-1 Lazio
The Derby della Capitale has seen more red cards than any other fixture in Serie A since the turn of the century, yet there has been just one dismissal in the six most recent meetings between Lazio and Roma. With so much at stake, a more ill-tempered encounter could break out, which might suit the Giallorossi more as Mourinho's pragmatism trumps 'Sarrisimo' again.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Roma win with a probability of 53.21%. A draw has a probability of 24% and a win for Lazio has a probability of 22.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.71%) and 2-0 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.42%), while for a Lazio win it is 0-1 (6.72%).