Both sides have improved at the back this season, as Lazio have conceded five league goals in 2022-23 compared to 12 at this point last year; Spezia have leaked 11 compared to 19.
The hosts are a formidable prospect on home soil, though, and even if Immobile sits out, chief creator Sergej Milinkovic-Savic can cause havoc in the visitors' defence.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 70.88%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 11.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 1-0 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.07%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-2 (3.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
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