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Serie A | Gameweek 13
Nov 5, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Spezia Calcio logo
AC Milan
2 - 1
Spezia
Hernandez (21'), Giroud (89')
Bennacer (40'), Messias (63'), Giroud (83'), Hernandez (83'), Tonali (90+3')
Giroud (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Maldini (59')
Ampadu (74'), Egill Ellertsson (80'), N'Zola (83'), Caldara (89')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Spezia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
More game data and we say below the videos

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 4-0 Salzburg
Wednesday, November 2 at 8pm in Champions League

Spezia

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Spezia 1-2 Fiorentina
Sunday, October 30 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 2-0 Spezia

 There is no reason to think that Spezia will break their duck on the road this time out, as they face a formidable force in the shape of Milan at San Siro. With little to offer up front, the visitors will be overpowered by the Scudetto holders at the other end; keeping the hosts in touch with Napoli at the top of the table. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 79.05%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 6.93%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.59%) and 1-0 (10.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.66%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (2.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawSpezia
79.05% (-0.018999999999991 -0.02) 14.02%6.93% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
Both teams to score 42.6% (0.063000000000002 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.28% (0.044000000000004 0.04)38.71% (-0.052 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.97% (0.046999999999997 0.05)61.02% (-0.056000000000004 -0.06)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.15% (0.0019999999999953 0)7.85% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
72.18% (0.016000000000005 0.02)27.82% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Spezia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
46.23% (0.064 0.06)53.77% (-0.071000000000005 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.87% (0.038 0.04)87.13% (-0.047000000000011 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 79.03%
    Spezia 6.93%
    Draw 14.02%
AC MilanDrawSpezia
2-0 @ 13.66% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-0 @ 11.59% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-0 @ 10.73% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 8.48% (0.004999999999999 0)
4-0 @ 7.38% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-1 @ 7.19% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
4-1 @ 4.58% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
5-0 @ 3.75% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-1 @ 2.33% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 2.23% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
6-0 @ 1.59%
4-2 @ 1.42% (0.0049999999999999 0)
6-1 @ 0.99% (0.002 0)
Other @ 3.12%
Total : 79.03%
1-1 @ 6.66% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-0 @ 4.22% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-2 @ 2.63% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
Other @ 0.51%
Total : 14.02%
0-1 @ 2.62% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-2 @ 2.07% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 6.93%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Spezia

AC Milan
90.3%
Draw
4.2%
Spezia
5.6%
144
Head to Head
Jan 17, 2022 5.30pm
AC Milan
1-2
Spezia
Leao (45+1')
Kalulu (22'), Gabbia (62')
Agudelo (64'), Gyasi (90+6')
Gyasi (19'), Kiwior (32'), Provedel (44'), Maggiore (65'), Bastoni (90+2')
Sep 25, 2021 2pm
Spezia
1-2
AC Milan
Verde (80')
Sala (25'), Nikolaou (89')
Maldini (48'), Diaz (86')
Maldini (58'), Hernandez (90')
Feb 13, 2021 7.45pm
Spezia
2-0
AC Milan
Maggiore (56'), Bastoni (67')
Vignali (23'), Bastoni (25'), Erlic (58')

Dalot (65')
Oct 4, 2020 5pm
AC Milan
3-0
Spezia
Leao (57', 78'), Hernandez (76')
Calhanoglu (47')

Ricci (32'), Gyasi (40')
Jan 15, 2014 5pm
AC Milan
3-1
Spezia
Robinho (28'), Pazzini (31'), Honda (47')
Honda (18'), Mexes (44')
Ferrari (90')
Catellani (16')
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> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CNapoli37276475284787
2Lazio37218858302871
3Inter Milan372231270422869
4AC Milan371910861421967
5Atalanta BCAtalanta371871261461561
6Roma371791148371160
7Juventus372161055332259
8Torino371411124240253
9Fiorentina371411125042853
10Monza371410134647-152
11Bologna371312125047351
12Udinese371113134747046
13SassuoloSassuolo37129164658-1245
14Empoli371013143747-1043
15Salernitana37915134860-1242
16Lecce37812173143-1236
17SpeziaSpezia37613183060-3031
18Hellas VeronaHellas Verona37710203056-2631
19Cremonese37412213469-3524
RSampdoria37310242469-4519
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