Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 64.72%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 13.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.12%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.1%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (5.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.