Atalanta have found the net in each of their last eight league games against Napoli - and Bologna, Ajax, and now Liverpool have each scored twice against the Serie A leaders over the past few weeks.
However, the Azzurri's formidable firepower at the other end means they can breach their hosts' mean defence more than once and secure a ninth straight league win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 45.14%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.94%) and 0-2 (7.2%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 2-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Napoli in this match.
0.53) 
-0.74) 
