| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Bolton Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Exeter City | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Ipswich Town | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Forest Green Rovers | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Port Vale | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 36.89%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 36.01% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (6.53%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (10.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Exeter City | Draw | Port Vale |
| 36.89% ( | 27.09% ( | 36.01% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.61% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.25% ( | 54.75% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.93% ( | 76.07% ( |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.4% ( | 28.59% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.61% ( | 64.39% ( |
| Port Vale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.87% ( | 29.12% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.95% ( | 65.05% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Exeter City | Draw | Port Vale |
| 1-0 @ 10.42% ( 2-1 @ 8.05% ( 2-0 @ 6.53% ( 3-1 @ 3.36% ( 3-0 @ 2.72% ( 3-2 @ 2.07% ( 4-1 @ 1.05% ( Other @ 2.68% Total : 36.89% | 1-1 @ 12.86% 0-0 @ 8.33% ( 2-2 @ 4.97% ( Other @ 0.94% Total : 27.09% | 0-1 @ 10.27% ( 1-2 @ 7.93% ( 0-2 @ 6.34% ( 1-3 @ 3.26% ( 0-3 @ 2.61% ( 2-3 @ 2.04% ( 1-4 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 2.55% Total : 36.01% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 31 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 58 | 22 | 36 | 68 |
| 2 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 32 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 57 | 32 | 25 | 68 |
| 3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 32 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 60 | 31 | 29 | 60 |
| 4 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 59 |
| 5 | Derby CountyDerby | 31 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 50 | 25 | 25 | 57 |
| 6 | Barnsley | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 45 | 27 | 18 | 56 |
| 7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 31 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 44 | 29 | 15 | 53 |
| 8 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 32 | 14 | 6 | 12 | 39 | 34 | 5 | 48 |
| 9 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 30 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 47 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 37 | 36 | 1 | 42 |
| 11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 40 |
| 12 | Port Vale | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 40 |
| 13 | Exeter CityExeter | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 39 |
| 14 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 30 | 8 | 15 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 39 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 38 |
| 16 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 36 |
| 17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 36 |
| 18 | Burton Albion | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 40 | 58 | -18 | 34 |
| 19 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 33 |
| 20 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 26 | 47 | -21 | 30 |
| 21 | MK Dons | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 29 |
| 22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 31 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 26 | 51 | -25 | 29 |
| 23 | Morecambe | 31 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 28 |
| 24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 63 | -38 | 22 |
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