

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 56.37%. A win for St Louis City had a probability of 22.86% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.42%) and 1-0 (7%). The likeliest St Louis City win was 1-2 (5.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | St Louis City |
| 56.37% ( | 20.77% ( | 22.86% ( |
| Both teams to score 63.78% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.21% ( | 33.8% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.37% ( | 55.63% ( |
| San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.98% ( | 12.02% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 62.51% ( | 37.49% ( |
| St Louis City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.5% ( | 27.5% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37% ( | 63% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | St Louis City |
| 2-1 @ 9.58% ( 2-0 @ 7.42% ( 1-0 @ 7% ( 3-1 @ 6.76% ( 3-0 @ 5.24% ( 3-2 @ 4.37% ( 4-1 @ 3.58% ( 4-0 @ 2.77% ( 4-2 @ 2.31% ( 5-1 @ 1.52% ( 5-0 @ 1.18% ( 4-3 @ 1% ( 5-2 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.68% Total : 56.37% | 1-1 @ 9.04% ( 2-2 @ 6.18% ( 0-0 @ 3.31% ( 3-3 @ 1.88% ( Other @ 0.36% Total : 20.77% | 1-2 @ 5.84% ( 0-1 @ 4.27% 0-2 @ 2.76% ( 2-3 @ 2.66% ( 1-3 @ 2.51% ( 0-3 @ 1.19% ( Other @ 3.64% Total : 22.86% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 27 |
| 2 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 26 |
| 3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 26 |
| 4 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | New York City FCNY City | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 24 |
| 6 | Nashville SCNashville | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Chicago Fire | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 22 |
| 9 | Orlando City | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 21 |
| 11 | New England RevolutionNew England | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 21 |
| 12 | DC United | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 16 |
| 13 | Toronto | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 13 |
| 15 | CF MontrealMontreal | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 6 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 28 |
| 2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Portland TimbersPortland | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 22 |
| 4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 19 |
| 7 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 22 | 5 | 17 |
| 8 | Dallas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 17 |
| 9 | Austin FCAustin | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 17 |
| 10 | St Louis City | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 13 |
| 11 | Houston DynamoHouston | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
| 12 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 29 | -17 | 7 |
| 15 | San Diego FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
