

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 56.59%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 22.49% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.69%) and 1-0 (7.36%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-2 (5.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Minnesota United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Minnesota United | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
| 56.59% ( | 20.92% ( | 22.49% ( |
| Both teams to score 62.69% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65% ( | 34.99% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.01% ( | 56.98% ( |
| Minnesota United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.65% ( | 12.35% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.82% ( | 38.18% ( |
| San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.52% ( | 28.48% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.75% ( | 64.24% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Minnesota United | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
| 2-1 @ 9.66% ( 2-0 @ 7.69% ( 1-0 @ 7.36% ( 3-1 @ 6.74% ( 3-0 @ 5.36% ( 3-2 @ 4.23% ( 4-1 @ 3.52% ( 4-0 @ 2.8% ( 4-2 @ 2.21% ( 5-1 @ 1.47% ( 5-0 @ 1.17% ( 4-3 @ 0.93% ( 5-2 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 2.51% Total : 56.59% | 1-1 @ 9.24% ( 2-2 @ 6.07% ( 0-0 @ 3.52% ( 3-3 @ 1.77% ( Other @ 0.32% Total : 20.92% | 1-2 @ 5.8% ( 0-1 @ 4.42% ( 0-2 @ 2.77% ( 2-3 @ 2.54% ( 1-3 @ 2.43% ( 0-3 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 3.36% Total : 22.49% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 56 | 39 | 17 | 53 |
| 2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 33 | 11 | 48 |
| 3 | Columbus Crew | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 47 | 22 | 25 | 43 |
| 4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 25 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 42 | 31 | 11 | 41 |
| 5 | New York City FCNY City | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 36 | 30 | 6 | 38 |
| 6 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 37 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 39 | 38 | 1 | 34 |
| 8 | Toronto | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 30 |
| 9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 28 |
| 10 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 27 |
| 11 | CF MontrealMontreal | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 27 |
| 12 | Nashville SCNashville | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 26 |
| 13 | DC United | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 26 |
| 14 | Chicago Fire | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 25 |
| 15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 23 | 7 | 2 | 14 | 23 | 47 | -24 | 23 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 50 | 36 | 14 | 49 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 30 | 18 | 47 |
| 3 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 51 | 34 | 17 | 44 |
| 4 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 50 | 43 | 7 | 41 |
| 5 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 38 |
| 6 | Houston DynamoHouston | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 37 |
| 7 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 37 |
| 8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 36 |
| 9 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 40 | 41 | -1 | 33 |
| 10 | Austin FCAustin | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 31 |
| 11 | Dallas | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 38 | 39 | -1 | 30 |
| 12 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 24 |
| 13 | St Louis City | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 23 |
| 14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 25 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 31 | 61 | -30 | 14 |
