

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 49.9%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 25.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.72%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Orlando City | Draw | New York City FC |
| 49.9% ( | 24.6% ( | 25.49% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.55% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.33% ( | 48.67% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.21% ( | 70.78% ( |
| Orlando City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.47% ( | 19.53% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.58% ( | 51.42% ( |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.54% ( | 33.46% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.91% ( | 70.09% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Orlando City | Draw | New York City FC |
| 1-0 @ 10.67% ( 2-1 @ 9.54% ( 2-0 @ 8.72% ( 3-1 @ 5.2% ( 3-0 @ 4.75% ( 3-2 @ 2.84% ( 4-1 @ 2.12% ( 4-0 @ 1.94% ( 4-2 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 2.97% Total : 49.9% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( 0-0 @ 6.53% ( 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 3-3 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.6% | 0-1 @ 7.15% ( 1-2 @ 6.4% ( 0-2 @ 3.92% ( 1-3 @ 2.33% ( 2-3 @ 1.91% ( 0-3 @ 1.43% ( Other @ 2.36% Total : 25.49% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 56 | 39 | 17 | 53 |
| 2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 33 | 11 | 48 |
| 3 | Columbus Crew | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 47 | 22 | 25 | 43 |
| 4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 25 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 42 | 31 | 11 | 41 |
| 5 | New York City FCNY City | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 36 | 30 | 6 | 38 |
| 6 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 37 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 39 | 38 | 1 | 34 |
| 8 | Toronto | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 30 |
| 9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 28 |
| 10 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 27 |
| 11 | CF MontrealMontreal | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 27 |
| 12 | Nashville SCNashville | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 26 |
| 13 | DC United | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 26 |
| 14 | Chicago Fire | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 25 |
| 15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 23 | 7 | 2 | 14 | 23 | 47 | -24 | 23 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 50 | 36 | 14 | 49 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 30 | 18 | 47 |
| 3 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 51 | 34 | 17 | 44 |
| 4 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 50 | 43 | 7 | 41 |
| 5 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 38 |
| 6 | Houston DynamoHouston | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 37 |
| 7 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 37 |
| 8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 36 |
| 9 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 40 | 41 | -1 | 33 |
| 10 | Austin FCAustin | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 31 |
| 11 | Dallas | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 38 | 39 | -1 | 30 |
| 12 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 24 |
| 13 | St Louis City | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 23 |
| 14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 25 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 31 | 61 | -30 | 14 |
