

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 46.15%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 28.97% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.29%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 0-1 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
| 46.15% ( | 24.88% ( | 28.97% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.44% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.51% ( | 47.49% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.3% ( | 69.7% ( |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.37% ( | 20.63% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.81% ( | 53.19% ( |
| FC Cincinnati Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.85% ( | 30.16% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.7% ( | 66.31% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
| 1-0 @ 9.82% ( 2-1 @ 9.29% ( 2-0 @ 7.75% ( 3-1 @ 4.89% ( 3-0 @ 4.08% ( 3-2 @ 2.93% ( 4-1 @ 1.93% ( 4-0 @ 1.61% ( 4-2 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 2.7% Total : 46.15% | 1-1 @ 11.77% ( 0-0 @ 6.22% ( 2-2 @ 5.57% ( 3-3 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.88% | 0-1 @ 7.46% ( 1-2 @ 7.06% ( 0-2 @ 4.47% ( 1-3 @ 2.82% ( 2-3 @ 2.23% ( 0-3 @ 1.79% ( Other @ 3.15% Total : 28.97% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 56 | 39 | 17 | 53 |
| 2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 33 | 11 | 48 |
| 3 | Columbus Crew | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 47 | 22 | 25 | 43 |
| 4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 25 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 42 | 31 | 11 | 41 |
| 5 | New York City FCNY City | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 36 | 30 | 6 | 38 |
| 6 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 37 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 39 | 38 | 1 | 34 |
| 8 | Toronto | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 30 |
| 9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 28 |
| 10 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 27 |
| 11 | CF MontrealMontreal | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 27 |
| 12 | Nashville SCNashville | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 26 |
| 13 | DC United | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 26 |
| 14 | Chicago Fire | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 25 |
| 15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 23 | 7 | 2 | 14 | 23 | 47 | -24 | 23 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 50 | 36 | 14 | 49 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 30 | 18 | 47 |
| 3 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 51 | 34 | 17 | 44 |
| 4 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 50 | 43 | 7 | 41 |
| 5 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 38 |
| 6 | Houston DynamoHouston | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 37 |
| 7 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 37 |
| 8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 36 |
| 9 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 40 | 41 | -1 | 33 |
| 10 | Austin FCAustin | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 31 |
| 11 | Dallas | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 38 | 39 | -1 | 30 |
| 12 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 24 |
| 13 | St Louis City | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 23 |
| 14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 25 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 31 | 61 | -30 | 14 |
