Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Go Ahead Eagles win with a probability of 65.54%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 15.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Go Ahead Eagles win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.01%) and 1-0 (7.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.28%), while for a Willem II win it was 1-2 (4.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Go Ahead Eagles would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | Willem II |
| 65.54% ( | 18.47% ( | 15.98% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.5% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.28% ( | 33.72% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.45% ( | 55.54% ( |
| Go Ahead Eagles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.35% ( | 9.64% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 67.8% ( | 32.2% ( |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.86% ( | 34.14% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.17% ( | 70.83% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | Willem II |
| 2-1 @ 9.68% ( 2-0 @ 9.01% ( 1-0 @ 7.7% ( 3-1 @ 7.55% ( 3-0 @ 7.02% ( 4-1 @ 4.41% ( 4-0 @ 4.11% ( 3-2 @ 4.05% ( 4-2 @ 2.37% ( 5-1 @ 2.06% ( 5-0 @ 1.92% ( 5-2 @ 1.11% ( Other @ 4.56% Total : 65.55% | 1-1 @ 8.28% ( 2-2 @ 5.2% ( 0-0 @ 3.29% ( 3-3 @ 1.45% ( Other @ 0.25% Total : 18.47% | 1-2 @ 4.45% ( 0-1 @ 3.54% ( 0-2 @ 1.9% ( 2-3 @ 1.86% ( 1-3 @ 1.59% ( Other @ 2.64% Total : 15.98% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 31 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 74 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 31 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 93 | 35 | 58 | 70 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 31 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 72 | 33 | 39 | 65 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 31 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 62 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 51 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 34 | 17 | 50 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 47 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 40 |
| 9 | Groningen | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 38 |
| 10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 31 | 10 | 6 | 15 | 35 | 53 | -18 | 36 |
| 11 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 35 |
| 12 | Heracles | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 35 |
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 34 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 34 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 32 |
| 16 | Willem II | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 25 |
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 31 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 21 | 59 | -38 | 20 |
| 18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 36 | 68 | -32 | 19 |
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