

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 41.84%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 33.75% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.42%). The likeliest Heracles win was 1-2 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortuna Sittard would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Heracles |
| 41.84% ( | 24.41% ( | 33.75% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.32% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.6% ( | 43.4% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.2% ( | 65.8% ( |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.14% ( | 20.86% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.44% ( | 53.56% ( |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.96% ( | 25.04% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.29% ( | 59.71% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Heracles |
| 2-1 @ 8.88% ( 1-0 @ 8.19% ( 2-0 @ 6.42% ( 3-1 @ 4.64% ( 3-0 @ 3.35% ( 3-2 @ 3.21% ( 4-1 @ 1.82% ( 4-0 @ 1.31% ( 4-2 @ 1.26% Other @ 2.75% Total : 41.84% | 1-1 @ 11.33% 2-2 @ 6.15% ( 0-0 @ 5.22% ( 3-3 @ 1.48% ( Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.41% | 1-2 @ 7.85% ( 0-1 @ 7.23% ( 0-2 @ 5.01% ( 1-3 @ 3.62% ( 2-3 @ 2.84% ( 0-3 @ 2.31% ( 1-4 @ 1.25% ( 2-4 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 2.65% Total : 33.75% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 7 | 52 | 51 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 48 | 14 | 34 | 38 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 37 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 16 | 20 | 33 |
| 5 | Ajax | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 25 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 25 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 23 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 21 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 20 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 19 |
| 12 | Heracles | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 18 |
| 13 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 17 |
| 14 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 17 |
| 15 | Almere CityAlmere City | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 34 | -16 | 16 |
| 16 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 14 |
| 17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 40 | -22 | 11 |
| 18 | Vitesse | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 37 | -25 | 11 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
