Arsenal should not be considered the favourites for Sunday's Premier League fixture against Newcastle United, even though they have not lost at home to the Magpies in the top flight for 15 years, Gunners expert Charles Watts has claimed.
Mikel Arteta's men take to the Emirates Stadium soil for one last time in the 2024-25 season this weekend, where second hosts third in a crucial battle in the fight for the Champions League places in the Premier League table.
Arsenal start the day two points better off than the Magpies and can guarantee Champions League football with a victory, but Eddie Howe's side have already trumped their capital counterparts on three separate occasions this season.
A couple of months after conquering the Gunners 1-0 in the Premier League at St James' Park, Newcastle strolled past Arteta's men in the EFL Cup semi-finals, and the aggregate scoreline from their three battles this season reads 5-0.
Asked by Sports Mole whether the game could be considered a must-win, Watts replied: "I want to win it. Arsenal have only won three of the last 11 games in the league. It's not been a fun end to the season and they're really, really struggling. But I'm at the stage now where I just want the season to finish.
"I think it's going to be a struggle. Newcastle are playing very well. They've got good confidence behind them, a good win against Chelsea, whereas Arsenal obviously haven't won for a while now in the league.
Watts: 'Newcastle game not a must-win for Arsenal'
"Newcastle have got Arsenal's number at the moment, as we found out three times already in three games. Maybe I'm a bit washed out by this season, but I just don't really look at it as an absolute must win because I'm not overly bothered. It's been a bad season. Whatever happens, it's just not been good enough. They've fallen off. As Mikel said, they've gone backwards.
"They tend to be favourites at home, but I'm not sure I'd be putting any money on Arsenal. If I was being asked to put some money on one of the two teams, it would probably be Newcastle, who know that they can move above Arsenal with a win.
"If you offer me a draw, I'd take it. Keep them two points behind Arsenal, move on to that Southampton game and just get the job done then, which I would hope they would be able to do. I would say Newcastle favourites this game. Absolutely."
Arsenal risk coming into the penultimate gameweek with a ravaged midfield and attack, as Mikel Merino is definitely unavailable on account of his sending-off for two bookable offences in last weekend's 2-2 draw with Liverpool.
Furthermore, all of Leandro Trossard, Declan Rice and Kai Havertz are touch-and-go with hamstring problems, although Arteta refused to rule any of the trio out when asked in his pre-game press conference.
However, the Arsenal boss has been told to rest Rice for the remainder of the season, while the absences of Trossard and Merino should see Gabriel Martinelli start in the number nine position, from which he got his goal at Anfield last weekend.
Arteta sent Ethan Nwaneri demand for Newcastle game
© Imago
Either Raheem Sterling or Kieran Tierney would be the most natural fits on the left wing, but Watts wants to see Ethan Nwaneri trialled in that role, even though he will not be able to cut inside and get shots away on his favoured left foot from that position.
"I'd move Ethan over to left hand side," Watts replied when asked what Arsenal should do in attack. "He's not getting many minutes at the moment; I'm not sure why.
"He has been struggling for form of late; that run in the team where he had a few starts around United, Everton, Brentford, he really struggled and was getting withdrawn early.
"I think Arteta has looked at him and thought, physically maybe you're a little bit done for this season. He's just given him a bit of a breather now, but I'd play him in this game.
"Yes, he loves to cut inside and get shots away from the other side, but I still think he can do a job over there on the left-hand side. So I'd go Ethan, Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka."
Nwaneri will be searching for his 10th goal of the season in all competitions on Sunday afternoon, but the 18-year-old has totalled just eight minutes across the Gunners' last three Premier League matches.
Ben Knapton
