Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 44.54%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 30.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-2 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.