Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 50.67%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 24.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.98%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.