

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 39.12%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 34.12% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 0-1 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 39.12% ( | 26.75% ( | 34.12% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.5% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.46% ( | 53.54% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.95% ( | 75.05% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.27% ( | 26.73% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38% ( | 62% ( |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.29% ( | 29.71% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.23% ( | 65.77% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 1-0 @ 10.47% ( 2-1 @ 8.39% ( 2-0 @ 6.91% ( 3-1 @ 3.69% ( 3-0 @ 3.04% ( 3-2 @ 2.24% ( 4-1 @ 1.22% ( 4-0 @ 1% ( Other @ 2.16% Total : 39.12% | 1-1 @ 12.71% ( 0-0 @ 7.94% ( 2-2 @ 5.09% ( 3-3 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.75% | 0-1 @ 9.64% ( 1-2 @ 7.72% ( 0-2 @ 5.85% ( 1-3 @ 3.12% ( 0-3 @ 2.37% ( 2-3 @ 2.06% ( 1-4 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2.42% Total : 34.12% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
| 1 | S | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | I | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | S | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | T | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5 | R | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Porto | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Braga | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | PortimonensePortimonense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | ChavesChaves | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 4 |
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