

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 52.23%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 25.83% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.36%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-2 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 52.23% ( | 21.95% ( | 25.83% ( |
| Both teams to score 63% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.66% ( | 36.35% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.53% ( | 58.48% ( |
| AFC Wimbledon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.87% ( | 14.13% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.23% ( | 41.78% ( |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.37% ( | 26.64% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.13% ( | 61.87% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.53% ( 1-0 @ 7.36% ( 2-0 @ 7.21% ( 3-1 @ 6.22% ( 3-0 @ 4.7% ( 3-2 @ 4.11% ( 4-1 @ 3.04% ( 4-0 @ 2.3% ( 4-2 @ 2.01% ( 5-1 @ 1.19% ( Other @ 4.54% Total : 52.23% | 1-1 @ 9.74% ( 2-2 @ 6.31% ( 0-0 @ 3.76% ( 3-3 @ 1.81% ( Other @ 0.33% Total : 21.95% | 1-2 @ 6.44% ( 0-1 @ 4.98% ( 0-2 @ 3.29% ( 1-3 @ 2.84% ( 2-3 @ 2.78% ( 0-3 @ 1.45% 1-4 @ 0.94% ( 2-4 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 2.18% Total : 25.83% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Walsall | 39 | 20 | 11 | 8 | 68 | 44 | 24 | 71 |
| 2 | Bradford CityBradford | 39 | 20 | 10 | 9 | 52 | 32 | 20 | 70 |
| 3 | Port Vale | 39 | 18 | 13 | 8 | 49 | 38 | 11 | 67 |
| 4 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 38 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 57 | 44 | 13 | 66 |
| 5 | AFC Wimbledon | 39 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 52 | 29 | 23 | 65 |
| 6 | Notts County | 39 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 39 | 19 | 65 |
| 7 | Grimsby Town | 39 | 19 | 5 | 15 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 62 |
| 8 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 39 | 14 | 16 | 9 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 58 |
| 9 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 39 | 14 | 16 | 9 | 45 | 39 | 6 | 58 |
| 10 | Salford City | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 47 | 43 | 4 | 56 |
| 11 | Chesterfield | 38 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 59 | 44 | 15 | 55 |
| 12 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 39 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 53 |
| 13 | Bromley | 39 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 52 |
| 14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 39 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 51 | 57 | -6 | 50 |
| 15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 39 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 55 | 56 | -1 | 48 |
| 16 | BarrowBarrow | 39 | 13 | 9 | 17 | 43 | 46 | -3 | 48 |
| 17 | MK Dons | 39 | 13 | 7 | 19 | 51 | 59 | -8 | 46 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 39 | 13 | 7 | 19 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 46 |
| 19 | Gillingham | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 44 |
| 20 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 39 | 10 | 12 | 17 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 42 |
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 39 | 11 | 9 | 19 | 30 | 49 | -19 | 42 |
| 22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 39 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 30 | 55 | -25 | 40 |
| 23 | Morecambe | 39 | 9 | 6 | 24 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 33 |
| 24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 39 | 7 | 10 | 22 | 30 | 59 | -29 | 31 |
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