Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western United win with a probability of 45.4%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 32.76% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.58%) and 0-1 (5.53%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-6 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Western United would win this match.