

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western United win with a probability of 45.4%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 32.76% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.58%) and 0-1 (5.53%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-6 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Western United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Western United |
| 32.76% ( | 21.83% ( | 45.4% ( |
| Both teams to score 68.63% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.92% ( | 31.08% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.52% ( | 52.48% ( |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.24% ( | 19.76% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.2% ( | 51.79% ( |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.53% ( | 14.47% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.56% ( | 42.43% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Western United |
| 2-1 @ 7.27% ( 1-0 @ 4.63% ( 3-1 @ 3.93% ( 3-2 @ 3.8% ( 2-0 @ 3.76% ( 3-0 @ 2.03% ( 4-1 @ 1.59% ( 4-2 @ 1.54% ( 4-3 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 3.22% Total : 32.76% | 1-1 @ 8.96% ( 2-2 @ 7.02% ( 0-0 @ 2.86% ( 3-3 @ 2.45% ( Other @ 0.55% Total : 21.83% | 1-2 @ 8.66% ( 1-3 @ 5.58% ( 0-1 @ 5.53% ( 0-2 @ 5.34% ( 2-3 @ 4.53% ( 0-3 @ 3.44% ( 1-4 @ 2.7% ( 2-4 @ 2.19% ( 0-4 @ 1.66% ( 3-4 @ 1.18% ( 1-5 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 3.55% Total : 45.4% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Auckland FC | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 53 |
| 2 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 25 | 16 | 48 |
| 3 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 55 | 37 | 18 | 47 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 58 | 40 | 18 | 46 |
| 5 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 43 |
| 6 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 38 |
| 7 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 37 |
| 8 | Macarthur | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 50 | 45 | 5 | 33 |
| 9 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 30 |
| 10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 29 | 51 | -22 | 26 |
| 11 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 24 |
| 12 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 32 | 51 | -19 | 21 |
| 13 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 56 | -34 | 17 |
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