

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 54.71%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 22.99% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.9%) and 2-0 (8.47%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-2 (5.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 54.71% ( | 22.29% ( | 22.99% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.4% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.07% ( | 40.93% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.68% ( | 63.32% ( |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.09% ( | 14.91% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.71% ( | 43.29% ( |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.64% ( | 31.36% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.27% ( | 67.73% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Braga | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 2-1 @ 9.82% ( 1-0 @ 8.9% ( 2-0 @ 8.47% ( 3-1 @ 6.23% ( 3-0 @ 5.37% ( 3-2 @ 3.61% ( 4-1 @ 2.96% ( 4-0 @ 2.56% ( 4-2 @ 1.72% ( 5-1 @ 1.13% ( 5-0 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 2.97% Total : 54.71% | 1-1 @ 10.31% ( 2-2 @ 5.69% ( 0-0 @ 4.68% ( 3-3 @ 1.4% ( Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.29% | 1-2 @ 5.98% ( 0-1 @ 5.42% ( 0-2 @ 3.14% ( 1-3 @ 2.31% ( 2-3 @ 2.2% ( 0-3 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 2.71% Total : 22.99% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
| 9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
| 14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
| 16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
| R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
| R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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