

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 52%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 24.44% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-2 (8.63%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (6.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Braga in this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Braga |
| 24.44% ( | 23.56% ( | 52% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.87% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.9% ( | 45.1% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.56% ( | 67.44% ( |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.59% ( | 32.41% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.08% ( | 68.92% ( |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.65% ( | 17.35% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.26% ( | 47.73% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Braga |
| 1-0 @ 6.33% ( 2-1 @ 6.25% ( 2-0 @ 3.57% ( 3-1 @ 2.35% ( 3-2 @ 2.06% ( 3-0 @ 1.34% ( Other @ 2.54% Total : 24.44% | 1-1 @ 11.09% ( 0-0 @ 5.62% ( 2-2 @ 5.48% ( 3-3 @ 1.2% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.55% | 0-1 @ 9.85% ( 1-2 @ 9.72% ( 0-2 @ 8.63% ( 1-3 @ 5.68% ( 0-3 @ 5.04% ( 2-3 @ 3.2% ( 1-4 @ 2.49% ( 0-4 @ 2.21% ( 2-4 @ 1.4% ( Other @ 3.81% Total : 52.01% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 43 |
| 2 | Benfica | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 11 | 24 | 42 |
| 3 | Porto | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 38 |
| 4 | Braga | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 25 | 15 | 33 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 29 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 8 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 20 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 18 |
| 12 | PortimonensePortimonense | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 36 | -18 | 18 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 16 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 16 |
| 16 | Rio AveRio Ave | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 15 |
| 17 | Vizela | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 | ChavesChaves | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 11 |
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